High pressure stretches north to south throughout the eastern United States, including here in the Finger Lakes region.
Overnight, a subtle cold front passed through the region with little fanfare. That front is now well to the east, and even the very limited lake response behind it has faded away.
Skies are clear to start today and will remain as such until some late thin clouds begin to build in towards sunset.
Winds will be light today with speeds around 5 mph this morning and even lower for the afternoon. Winds will be from the west and southwest this morning, becoming variable for the afternoon before eventually turning southerly.
Temperatures will range from 45 to 50 degrees today, with the best chance for hitting 50 degrees mainly west of Seneca Lake, and the best chance for sitting near 45 degrees coming in the higher terrain of Central New York.
Tonight, as winds turn to the south, they will increase steadily. Temperatures will initially drop to the mid 30s but will rise with the wind overnight. By dawn Wednesday, wind speeds will be 10-15 mph and temperatures will be in the low and mid 40s.
Clouds will also increase overnight and a few stray showers will be possible. The chance for these showers will continue into Wednesday morning, but most areas will probably stay dry.
Blustery south and southwest winds, partial sunshine, and warm temperatures will define Wednesday.
The winds will be strongest in the early afternoon and for areas west of Seneca Lake. Gusts over 40 mph from the southwest are likely for several hours, with lighter but still breezy winds to the east.
Temperatures will soar, with many places breaking into the low 60s. Higher elevations will stick to the 50s, especially in Cortland and southern Onondaga counties, where a few mid 50s will be possible.
Another subtle cold front will drop south through the region in the evening hours, turning winds to the west and decreasing their speeds. Overnight temperatures should fall to the mid 30s with a period of clear skies.
Strong Cold Front
High pressure will pass by Thursday morning, resulting in a period of calm winds that will turn southerly Thursday afternoon.
A warm front will approach late in the day, increasing clouds during the morning and bringing rain to the area during the afternoon. The rain will be widespread and should last a couple of hours.
Temperatures will follow an atypical pattern on Thursday. First, they will rise to around 50 degrees ahead of the rain. While it rains, they will retreat to the mid and upper 40s. During the evening and overnight, as the warm front passes through, temperatures should rise to the low and mid 50s.
However, a strong cold front will move through sometime during Thursday night or the first half of Friday. There continues to be a rather large discrepancy among the models regarding the timing of the front.
Either way, additional rain is likely along the front, which should turn to some snow as it ends. The chances for accumulations are minimal with the snow quickly pulling out of the area.
Temperatures will fall on Friday and end up in the upper 20s for the afternoon. Northwest winds will become strong, with speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts of at least 35-45 mph. The wind will peak during the afternoon and gradually decrease Friday evening.
A little limited lake effect may develop briefly southeast of Lake Ontario Friday evening, but winds will turn back to the southwest and end the lake effect before sunrise Saturday. Many areas will start the weekend clear and cold with morning lows in the mid and upper 10s.
Temperatures will bounce right back, though, with highs Saturday in the upper 30s and low 40s. Skies will be sunny with some occasional clouds mixing in.
Sunday looks cloudier but warmer with highs in the mid 40s and little sun. Monday looks sunnier and warmer yet, with highs possibly making another run at 50 degrees.
Beyond that, however, winter looks to make something of a comeback, with increasing chances for snow and cooler temperatures. Uncertainty is high in the details, though.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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