Turning Colder
The first of two fronts moved through the Finger Lakes region overnight with little fanfare.
While there was little to no precipitation with the front, temperatures will be much cooler today than yesterday, and straight-up wintry tomorrow behind the second front.
Temperatures are split across the region this morning to start the day. To the north, where skies are cloudy, most areas are in the low 40s. To the south, where skies are clear, mid and low 30s are more common.
For the areas seeing a little sun this morning, clouds will increase and thicken before midday. Cloudy areas will see new clouds move in, but no precipitation is expected through the early afternoon hours. Temperatures will reach the mid and locally upper 40s during this time.
An area of rain will move in for the mid and late afternoon. This will be a widespread, steady rain for a few hours. Temperatures will drop, with mid 30s near Lake Ontario and temperatures around 40 degrees for most of the region.
This evening, scattered showers will be possible, but there will be plenty of dry time. Rain chances will increase towards and after midnight, including a few heavier downpours and possibly a couple rumbles of thunder.
Temperatures will be chaotic tonight, with a tightening gradient as warm air pushes in from the south simultaneously with cold air pushing in from the north. While evening temperatures will not be far off from the late afternoon ranges described above, after midnight, the gradient will tighten. Portions of the Southern Tier could rise into the low 50s while the Lake Ontario shore drops to the low 30s.
This clash of air masses will cause the front to only slowly sag south and could lead to areas of sleet and freezing rain during the predawn and early morning hours. The chances for ice will increase the further north into the region one is, but how much ice occurs before changing over to snow is uncertain. There is at least some potential for upwards of a tenth of an inch of ice in localized pockets.
It will be best to prepare for slippery conditions, especially in the northern half of the region, early Friday morning. Further south, rain may hang on into the early morning hours before turning over to snow with a lesser chance for ice in between.
Snow showers will be widespread into Friday afternoon before consolidating down to some areas of limited lake effect Friday evening. Snow accumulations will be minimal, with most areas seeing under an inch of accumulation.
Temperatures will transition to the 30s regionwide with the passage of the front early Friday morning. These will give way to mid 20s Friday afternoon. Northwest winds gusting between 25-35 mph will make it feel colder yet.
Weekend Weather and an Uncertain Next Week
Lake effect snows will dissipate overnight Friday as winds begin to shift to the west and southwest. Winds will be out of the southwest regionwide shortly after sunrise.
The clearing skies, still light winds, and cold air mass will combine to send temperatures into the mid 10s to start Saturday. However, with winds increasing out of the southwest during the daytime hours and at least partial sunshine, afternoon highs should be up around or slightly above 40 degrees.
Wind speeds will increase to around 10 mph, with stronger winds from Batavia to Rochester, as is typical with a southwest wind. Gusts will stay under 30 mph except for the Batavia to Rochester belt. The wind speed will drop Saturday evening and winds will turn southerly by Sunday morning.
With the warm flow and an increase in clouds Saturday night, Sunday should start out with lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. The daytime hours will be quiet but cloudy with highs in the mid 40s. Temperatures Sunday night will only drop to the mid 30s.
A weak weather system will pass through on Monday with rain showers. Some snow may mix in during the later afternoon and early evening hours, particularly over higher terrain. No accumulation is expected.
There will be several weather systems passing through the northeastern United States during the middle and end of next week. Currently, the path of these systems is still uncertain and close enough to our area that small differences in the track result in large differences in the forecast.
Overall, the chance for significant snow remains low, but above zero. Heavy snow would be most likely in the Thursday-Friday time frame, on the small chance that it came to pass. There is a greater chance that we will get through next week with only minor snow accumulations.
Temperatures will settle into a near or below average pattern from late next week, through next weekend, and into at least the first few days of March. This, at least, is trending toward higher certainty, even if the precipitation and snow chances are still looking chaotically uncertain.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
