Sunday Midday Updates
A quick-moving, sloppy winter weather system will impact the Finger Lakes region later Monday afternoon through Monday night.
Precipitation will move from southwest to northeast during the late afternoon hours on Monday. There is still a little uncertainty about the exact timing, but plan for an arrival time sometime between 3-6 PM. In my full update post Monday morning, I will hopefully have that nailed down a little more specifically.
The precipitation will mostly start as a band of heavy snow. Snowfall rates may approach an inch per hour for a time in the first hour or two of the snow event. Some additional pockets of heavy snow may occasionally move through during the early evening hours as well.
Sleet will also mix in, perhaps with a few pockets of freezing rain at higher elevations. As usual, how much sleet mixes in will be highly variable and will have a large impact on snow amounts. Except for far northern and eastern areas, most places will probably see at least a brief period of sleet. The further southwest, the greater the likelihood of sleet, as shown in the lower snow totals on the snow map.
The overall intensity of the precipitation will decrease during the latter half of the evening and into the overnight. By Tuesday morning, only light lingering bits of precipitation are expected.
The greatest accumulations of snow will be in the I-81 corridor of the eastern Finger Lakes, the higher elevations outside of Elmira and Ithaca, and perhaps southeast of Lake Ontario, where cold air may hold on just long enough for some higher amounts. These areas will generally see 4-6 inches, but some locally higher amounts are likely.
Much of the region will end up in the 2-4 inch range, but there will likely be a quick cut off to amounts around or under an inch. The greatest uncertainty, and likely the greatest variability, in snow amounts is over the southwestern Finger Lakes, where the sleet has the best chance of causing high amounts of localized variations.
Travel conditions will probably be worst around and just after sunset Monday, when the snow is at its heaviest and road crews will be working to catch up with the quick onslaught. Aras of slick travel will remain into Tuesday morning as well, though.
I will have fine-tuning updates with my blog post tomorrow morning, as well as the usual forecast for the next week, including the 7-day forecast and medium range snow outlook graphics.
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