A small bubble of high pressure has built into the Finger Lakes this morning between low pressure meandering across New England and a cold front dropping southeast into the Upper Great Lakes.
With the center of the high to our south and the cold front to our northwest, a southwest flow of warmer air has set up across the Ohio River Valley and is funneling into western and central New York. Wind speeds today will be 5-10 mph.
There will be plenty of sunshine to help the atmosphere reach its warming potential, though typical summertime fair weather clouds will bubble up by the late morning and persist through the afternoon.
All except the highest hilltops should be at or above 85 degrees today. A few of the typically warmer urban areas may flirt with 90 degrees, but ultimately will mostly end up a degree or two shy.
Dewpoints will not be too high in the upper 50s to low 60s. Heat index values should, therefore, be right around the actual temperature.
A stray spit of rain cannot be totally ruled out this afternoon from a couple of the larger clouds. For those very few areas that see rain, it should only do so for a few minutes before moving on. The vast majority of the region will see no rain at all.
Tonight, a few clouds will pass through the region from time to time and a few stray showers may be possible. Low temperatures will mostly be in the mid 60s.
The front will drape itself from west to east over the region tomorrow, serving as a focal point for a few clusters of showers and storms in the afternoon. These will be most likely across the southern half of the region around and after 3 PM.
There will be some supportive winds aloft which could lead to a couple of stronger wind gusts in the more robust storm cells. The storms should be moving along quickly enough to prevent any major flooding concerns.
Outside of these mid and late afternoon showers and storms, skies will be a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will not be as warm, but will still be in the 80-85 degree range. The warmest temperatures will be found in the broad river valleys between Elmira and Binghamton.
More Showers, Storms
Wednesday night, the front will lift back north through the region with scattered showers throughout the area. The showers will depart early Thursday morning, opening the area up to some sunshine.
Late in the day, the front will sag back to the south. Showers and thunderstorms look more numerous, and winds aloft will again support some storm organization and a chance for some stronger wind gusts.
More details on the timing and nature of these storms will become available over the next day or so.
Otherwise, Thursday will again have a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the low to perhaps mid 80s.
The front will dissipate and move out of the area on Friday, but a few lingering showers will still be possible. Most of the time it will be dry, and some areas will likely miss out on the rain altogether. Temperatures will remain steady in the 80-85 degree range.
A warm, unsettled pattern will persist for the weekend.
Another impulse of atmospheric energy will move in on Saturday, triggering more showers and thunderstorms. Sunday, too, may have showers and storms about, though the chances look lower than they do on Saturday.
Temperatures will get a small boost ahead of that impulse on Saturday with highs in the mid 80s, provided any rain holds off until at least the mid-afternoon. Sunday will likely be a couple of degrees cooler.
Another small system may move through early next week before rain chances drop. Temperatures should remain steady with most of next week sticking to the low and mid 80s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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