Thursday-Friday Weather
A frontal boundary remains over the region this morning, but low pressure moving along the front will lift it out of the area later today.
Some early clouds associated with an area of rain showers overnight are lingering in some areas this morning. Meanwhile, skies have cleared in other places.
1:30 PM, 7/13/21 UPDATESometimes, the weather models come into a decent agreement with one another… and all end up being wrong.
A small line of showers and thunderstorms has been ongoing through western NY this morning and is now coming into the Finger Lakes early this afternoon.
With a primed environment ahead of these storms, strengthening is possible, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for most of the region.
None of the many models I’ve been studying for the last 36 hours had quite this scenario unfolding, so we will just have to go with it!
Original Post Continues from here, with strikeouts of outdated informationThe trend will be for increasing sunshine through the mid-morning, followed by a mix of sun and clouds for the rest of the day.
A stray thunderstorm may pop up during the mid to late afternoon hours for areas east of Cayuga Lake and especially in Onondaga County. This will be the tail end of a robust line of storms that are expected to impact the Adirondacks and eastern New York.
Should Any storms make it into our eastern regions, there will have a chance for strong winds, hail, and possibly even some tornadic activity. These are all very low chances, and I remain skeptical that there will be much of anything in the Finger Lakes whatsoever.
Afternoon highs will run unabated into the mid 80s with upper 80s in some urban areas, especially from Elmira to Binghamton. It will be humid much of the day with dewpoints in the 60s, though dewpoints will drop to the 50s during the second half of the afternoon for areas west of Seneca Lake.
Skies are expected to remain partly to mostly cloudy this evening and overnight. A couple stray showers cannot be ruled out. This would preclude any decent chances for seeing the Aurora tonight, but unsurprisingly, this much hyped-up Northern Lights event has fizzled, with the latest forecasts keeping the Aurora far to the north over Canada.
Some cloud cover is likely Friday morning as well, but much of that should push off to the east, leaving a mix of sun and clouds for much of the day. Again, a stray shower over the eastern areas cannot be ruled out, but most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures on Friday will start in the upper 50s and low 60s. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the low 80s with the usual warmer cities and valleys reaching the mid 80s. Dewpoints will be more comfortable in the upper 50s.
Weekend and Next Week’s Weather
Another weather system, enhanced by jet stream winds aloft, will be nearby this weekend. This will lead to some more unsettled weather, though the jury is still out on how exactly it all unfolds.
Saturday should start off dry and may end up staying that way into the afternoon for many areas. A triggering mechanism for thunderstorms will be lacking, but it will be plenty warm and muggy.
With plenty of sunshine, temperatures should push back into the mid and upper 80s. Dewpoints will return to the upper half of the 60s as well.
A few isolated storms should still be able to pop up in this environment, triggered by lake breezes and uneven heating across varying terrain.
Sunday will have a greater chance for showers and storms as an impulse in the jet stream moves through. Unfortunately, the atmosphere will be primed for heavy downpours, and localized flooding could become a concern once again.
With extra clouds and precipitation, Sunday will not be as hot as Saturday, but it will still be plenty warm and muggy with highs in the low 80s.
The early part of next week looks generally quiet. Monday and Wednesday both look dry, while Tuesday may have a few showers passing through the region. It should not be a washout by any means, and many areas may get through all three days without rain.
Temperatures will hover around 80 degrees on Monday and Tuesday, then poke up into the low 80s on Wednesday.
There will be a chance for some unsettled weather toward the end of next week, but it remains too early to pinpoint any details or have a high confidence in rain on any given day. Temperatures will probably stick close to 80 degrees, with a great chance for slightly below average temperatures versus above average.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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