Thursday-Friday Rain Chances
High pressure has moved off the coast of New England as a small low pressure system crosses into eastern Canada.
This low will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the area today and tomorrow.
Already this morning, an area of showers exists over the northwestern Finger Lakes, in and around the Rochester area. These showers are dropping southeast but dissipating as they do so. Most of the region will see little to no rain this morning as a result.
Clouds will mix with sun throughout the day amidst a backdrop of wildfire smoke. Some of the smoke will make it down to the surface, particularly late this afternoon.
Air quality is in the Good to Moderate categories this morning. Some areas may enter the orange “Unhealthy for sensitive groups” category at times, particularly in more urbanized areas.
It remains uncertain whether we see any additional showers or storms this afternoon. If anything develops, it will likely be rather isolated. Most areas should stay dry again. The best chance for any storms will be between 3-9 PM.
However, if anything does pop up, it could have some brief periods of strong winds.
Temperatures will mostly be in the low 80s today, though a few urbanized areas may push towards 85 degrees. South and southwest winds will blow with speeds at or just above 5 mph.
Tonight, there will continue to be some small chances for showers and storms, especially in the evening and again during the predawn hours. Overnight lows will be in the low and mid 60s. Areas of smoke will linger, with slight reductions in air quality continuing.
A cold front associated with the Canadian low will move through the area on Friday. Showers and storms will pop up along the front, but there is uncertainty about where and when. There is at least a chance that most of the activity will develop to our east and southeast.
It is more likely, however, that at least a few showers and storms should develop in the Finger Lakes, though. The further south and east, the greater the chances for storms. Once again, anything that does develop will have the potential to turn severe with damaging winds and perhaps some hail.
The greatest potential for severe storms will be between 1-5 PM. A few lingering showers or storms will be possible behind the main area of development into the evening hours, but should generally be sporadic and non-severe.
Much of the smoke will be swept away with the cold front, so air quality should be better in the afternoon than during the morning.
Quiet Weekend, Stormy Monday
Behind the cold front, high pressure will move through the area for the weekend.
Early Saturday, there may still be some clouds and a few showers lingering. Most areas will probably not see any rain.
The rest of Saturday should have a mix of sun and clouds, though there is an uncertain chance for some lingering smoke to move back into the area.
High temperatures will be cooler but close to the seasonal averages in the upper 70s. Saturday night will be comfortable beneath clear skies with lows in the mid 50s.
Sunday will also be tranquil. South winds and thin clouds will move into the area on the backside of the high and ahead of Monday’s weather system. Look for highs in the low 80s.
Conditions continue to look favorable overall for strong thunderstorms on Monday. The Storm Prediction Center even has the area highlighted for severe weather in their Day 5 outlook, which is not a common occurrence for our area.
It needs to be stressed, however, that there are many subtle details that still need to be worked out that will have a large influence on how Monday unfolds. We are very much still in a wait-and-see mode, so stay tuned through the weekend for continuing updates.
Confidence in both temperatures and precipitation beyond Monday’s weather system continues to be lower than normal. However, there does seem to be some agreement on the models about an increased chance of rain late next week.
Temperatures will likely follow the rain patterns, with 80s on dry days and 70s on wetter ones the most likely scenario.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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