A cold front associated with the rainfall on Thursday is finally clearing the Finger Lakes region this morning.
Sunshine will increase across the area this morning as the front continues to track eastward. The sunshine will continue throughout the day, mixing with some fair weather clouds during the daytime heating hours.
A steady northwest wind will blow, with the strongest speeds near 10 mph coming during the midday and early afternoon.
These winds will bring much less humid air into the region with dewpoints down well into the 50s. Afternoon highs will mostly be in the mid and upper 70s. A few localized locations may reach 80 degrees.
Changes will start to take place as early as this evening when some thin clouds will start to move in. By midnight, winds will turn to the south. Overnight temperatures will hold steady in the upper 50s and low 60s.
The first showers and storms may arrive by sunrise as warm, humid air pushes back into the region. Precipitation Saturday morning will quickly move off to the northeast, and by the late morning and midday hours, most areas should be clearing out.
The atmosphere should recover quickly with moderate levels of instability (fuel for storms) by the mid-afternoon. With some enhancements to the wind fields aloft, the stage will be set for some scattered severe thunderstorms from the mid-afternoon to the early evening hours. Severe weather will be possible any time from as early as 2 PM to as late as 9 PM.
Clusters of storms capable of producing damaging winds will be scattered about the region, with a small chance that these clusters come together into a larger line. Damaging winds will be the primary storm threat. However, while less likely, any storms that remain isolated from other activity will pose a large hail and isolated tornado risk.
Multiple rounds of storms will be possible in some areas, while others mostly get missed, as is the nature with scattered severe weather events. Exactly how widespread the severe thunderstorms become remains an uncertainty.
Outside of the thunderstorms, south and southwest winds will blow at around 10 mph on Saturday, bringing in the warmer, more humid air. Afternoon highs should reach the low 80s for most areas with muggy dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s.
While thunderstorms will diminish during the early evening, scattered showers will continue overnight and into Sunday morning. Overnight temperatures will drop to the low and mid 60s.
Weather Sunday and Beyond
Clouds and a few stray showers will continue to be possible through Sunday morning, but the afternoon should trend towards dry and sunny weather.
Like today, northwest winds will blow behind the front with speeds approaching 10 mph at times. Highs will mostly be in the upper 70s with a few low 80s across the Southern Tier. Dewpoints will be in the 60s during the morning but should drop to the 50s during the afternoon.
Mid and upper 50s will kick Monday off as the sun shines. However, throughout the day, thin clouds will increase. No rain is expected during the day, though.
High temperatures Monday will be a couple of degrees warmer than Sunday, with more areas reaching or getting just beyond 80 degrees. Still, most areas will not quite make it all the way to 80.
A weather system will move through Monday night into Tuesday with rain showers. A few thunderstorms will be possible, but mostly it will be rain showers. Temperatures will likely be held back a few degrees on Tuesday.
Dry weather is expected Wednesday and possibly Thursday next week before the next front arrives towards Friday. Temperatures should continue to be in the 75-80 degree range.
Mostly dry conditions are favored for next weekend and possibly through the early week as well. Temperatures will most likely continue to stick close to average, but there is a small chance for a hotter day here or there.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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