Not Much Dry Weather…
Low pressure continues to slowly spin its way northeastward and will end up over northern New England this afternoon.
On the backside of the low, an area of showers exists across the western Finger Lakes this morning. These will slowly pivot east-southeastward through the morning and midday hours.
Individual showers will be short-lived and generally light to moderate in intensity. Not all areas will see additional rain this morning, but probably more than half of the area will see at least a little.
The afternoon hours should be mostly dry. A lingering pop-up shower cannot be totally counted out, though. Sunshine should also gradually increase this afternoon, though clouds will remain plentiful throughout.
Winds will be from the west and northwest as the low pulls away. Wind speed will be around 5 mph. Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 70s this afternoon.
Skies will become mostly clear tonight with some areas of patchy fog. Nearly calm evening winds will pick up from the south after midnight with light speeds. Overnight lows will be near or above 60 degrees for most areas.
Most of Thursday will be dry with a mix of sunshine and fair weather clouds. Southerly winds will jog a bit to the southwest and increase, with speeds of 10-15 mph by the early afternoon. A few wind gusts may approach 30 mph.
The wind and extra sunshine will boost temperatures to the low and mid 80s. Dewpoints will be between 60-65 degrees.
This may be enough to trigger some late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in advance of the next weather system. Showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight, though there is some question about how widespread they become.
Severe weather is not expected, but there is at least some concern for repetitive storms which could lead to some localized flooding. It will be a warm and muggy night with lows in the low and mid 60s.
The vast majority of the precipitation should pull out of the region by sunrise on Friday. Sunshine should quickly build in Friday morning, but clouds will then increase again during the afternoon. A few more stray showers cannot be ruled out, but widespread rain looks unlikely.
It will again be a breezy day, with west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15 mph by midday and persisting for the afternoon. There is a higher potential for wind gusts, especially west of Keuka Lake, where gusts will peak around 35 mph.
Temperatures will be cool on Friday with most areas only reaching the low 70s. Some higher elevations may top out in the upper 60s.
Skies will clear for much of the region Friday night. The exception will be southeast of Lake Ontario, where lake effect clouds and showers will develop. The rain is most likely across far northeastern Wayne, northern Cayuga, and northern Onondaga counties.
Friday night temperatures will drop to the low and mid 50s for areas that stay clear, with upper 50s beneath the lake effect cloud cover.
…Until the Weekend
Most of the lake effect will dissipate by sunrise Saturday, though a lingering shower downwind of the lake is not impossible early on. That should be the only precipitation to worry about this weekend.
Saturday will have a mix of sun and clouds. Northwest winds will continue to blow at 10-15 mph during the morning but will lose their steam in the afternoon with speeds dropping to around 5 mph. Temperatures will only be a couple of degrees warmer than Friday.
Sunday is expected to be mostly sunny, though a few stray clouds will probably be passing through. Morning lows will generally be in the mid 50s, with afternoon highs getting a bump to the low 80s thanks to the abundance of sunshine and lack of a northwest wind. Light westerly winds will blow instead.
There is a small chance for a stray shower on Monday as a subtle system passes through. However, right now, most areas look as though they will stay dry. Temperatures should again be in the 80s.
Tuesday may end up several degrees cooler behind that subtle system. The daytime hours look dry, but models are hinting at a thunderstorm complex for the evening or nighttime hours. This will be something to watch for, but remains highly uncertain at this time.
Temperatures have the potential to increase for the middle or end of next week, but again, this is highly uncertain at this time. Rain chances during this time will depend on thunderstorm development, both locally and upstream over the Midwest or Great Lakes region with the potential for long-lasting complexes of storms to move into the area.
As a whole, though, the overall pattern does not look quite as wet as it has been as we head through the remainder of August. Temperatures in the 70s are looking much more common than 80s, and nighttime lows in the 50s will continue to become more common.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
