Quiet But Cloudy
A weak cold front is dropping south through the Finger Lakes region this morning.
While clouds are plentiful with this front, the radar is clear of any rain. That does not mean there is no chance for rain this morning, but it should be limited to a very localized spit of a few drops or some drizzle.
Even those small chances for rain will dissipate by midday, though clouds are likely to hang around into the afternoon. The clouds may thin some, though, allowing some sun to filter through.
Behind the front, winds will be from the northwest most of the day with speeds around or slightly below 10 mph.
The northerly flow and plentiful cloud cover will ensure temperatures stay in check with highs mostly in the mid 70s. Some upper 70s may show up across the Southern Tier.
It will remain mostly cloudy through the night with temperatures ranging through the 50s.
Tuesday should have more sun than today, but thin clouds high in the atmosphere will still pass through from time to time. No rain is expected.
Winds will be from the north at 5 mph or slightly higher. Temperatures will be in the low and mid 70s, with the warmest readings this time across the I-90 corridor.
Some occasional thin clouds will persist into Tuesday night. Otherwise, there will be periods of clear skies. Winds will become calm as high pressure slides overhead. The northern half of the region will drop to the mid 50s overnight, while the southern half reaches the low 50s.
Moisture, Unsettled Weather Returns
A large dome of heat will persist across the middle of the nation throughout much of the week. This will set up a pathway for moisture and atmospheric disturbances along the periphery of this dome across southern Canada and into our region.
Included in this moisture will be some leftover moisture from Hurricane Hillary, which made landfall in the Baja peninsula of Mexico’s Pacific coast over the weekend. Historic rainfall has occurred throughout the southwestern United States as a result.
There is a great deal of uncertainty about how exactly the weather evolves for the second half of the week, starting late Wednesday.
After a quiet day on Wednesday with sun and clouds, the chances for showers and storms will increase late in the afternoon and overnight. Showers and storms will continue into Thursday.
The placement of this rain is uncertain, as well as its movement and intensity. Models have been hinting for days at the possibility of heavy rain, but it remains to be seen where this will set up, or if it even evolves at all.
If there is heavy rain, it will likely be highly localized due to repeated or slow-moving thunderstorms.
As things look right now, the best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be on Thursday. Friday may end up showery as well, but with lighter amounts. Some rain may even linger into Saturday, but that remains highly uncertain.
Mainly dry weather is expected Sunday and into the early part of next week.
Temperatures throughout this period will remain in the mid 70s, if not cooler.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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