Dry Much of the Time
The weather will remain a bit unsettled through the weekend, but for much of the time, it will end up dry.
Each day will have some periods of scattered to sporadic showers, but none of the days should be a washout.
A large area of rain and thunderstorms moved through the region last night and is now far to the east. There is little on the radar this morning in the wake of these storms, though a few spits of drizzle or light showers are possible here and there.
Scattered showers will redevelop later in the morning and continue into the mid-afternoon. A few of these small showers may have a brief downpour and a couple rumbles of thunder, particularly over the southeastern quadrant of the region.
It appears there will be a lull in the shower activity during the late afternoon and early evening before a few more spits of rain develop between 9 PM and 6 AM. These showers will be light and sporadic, though there may also be some areas of drizzle.
Winds will turn to the northwest during the mid-morning hours Friday and persist through the afternoon with speeds of 5-10 mph. Temperatures today will mostly reside in the mid 70s with muggy dewpoints near 70 this morning falling to the mid and upper 60s this afternoon.
Overnight temperatures will mainly drop to the mid 60s with a few pockets of low 60s across the Southern Tier and Central New York. Dewpoints will drop to the low 60s.
The best chance for rain on Saturday will come in the mid to late afternoon as a front moves through. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. These should remain scattered, so not all areas will see this rain. Stray showers will also be possible before and after this time but with less frequency.
Winds on Saturday will be light from the northwest with speeds under 5 mph. Late in the afternoon, behind the front, winds will turn more northerly with speeds bumping up slightly.
Temperatures on Saturday will be similar to today with most areas in the mid 70s. Dewpoints will stick to the low 60s, so it should not feel quite as muggy as Friday.
Sunday will have the lowest chance of rain this weekend. Skies will start out cloudy but should brighten before noon. Fair weather clouds with a few pop-up showers will then be possible for the afternoon.
Probably less than half of the region will end up seeing rain on Sunday, and those areas that do see it will probably have less than 30 minutes of rain total throughout the day.
North winds will persist on Sunday with speeds around or just over 5 mph. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler than Saturday, with morning lows starting in the mid and upper 50s and afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s.
More Rain Upcoming
Clearing skies and light winds Sunday night will send temperatures to the low and mid 50s for Monday morning. Sunshine early will give way to an increase in clouds later in the day. A few showers will also be possible, mainly in the afternoon, over the southern half of the region.
Monday’s high temperatures should bump back up to the mid 70s. Dewpoints will be comfortable in the upper 50s and low 60s, and winds will be nearly calm.
Tuesday is the most interesting day to watch for rain, and due to a complex setup, is particularly uncertain this far in advance.
A weak area of low pressure will move into the area at the same time that a tropical system, currently Tropical Storm Franklin but by then a hurricane, moves across the northwestern Atlantic. Despite being far apart, there could be some atmospheric interaction between these two systems, leading to an increase in rain potential across our region.
Forecasting the position of a tropical system four days in advance results in an error of up to 166 miles in 2/3rds of the forecasts, which means deviations in the amount of interaction between these systems, and the placement of any rainbands, should be expected to change in the coming days.
So, at this point, if you have plans for Tuesday or even Wednesday that are rain-sensitive, keep a wary eye on the forecast, but do not scramble to make alternative plans just yet.
A shot of cooler air will build in behind the low, regardless of whether it interacts with Franklin or not. High temperatures in the mid and upper 60s are likely Wednesday and Thursday.
However, a warming trend should take hold next weekend with highs likely running above average during the first full week of September.
An overall dry weather pattern is also favored behind the mid-week system and continuing beyond Labor Day.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Darron Brown
Hi Drew. How is this year‘s rainfall in the finger lakes compared to average? Are there still drought conditions, or have things caught up to normal? Thanks for your reply.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
There is still a little bit of drought in the far western reachest of the area, west of I-390. The rest of the FLX has gotten slightly above average for the year at this point. Most areas have seen 100-125% of the average year-to-date precipitation, though the Southern Tier is more like 125-150%.
Here is a link to a map showing our YTD departures from average: https://water.weather.gov/precip/full.php?day=26&month=08&year=2023&time_type=recent&time_frame=year2date&recent_type=today&product=percent&units=eng&domain=current&geo_width=489196.98102510255&geo_height=305748.1131406892&xmin=-79.13969561117804&ymin=41.72522741166898&xmax=-74.74516436117827&ymax=43.74234978568217&layers={%22precip_layer%22:0.81,%22rfc_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22state_layer%22:1,%22hsa_layer%22:%22-1%22,%22county_layer%22:1}