High Pressure in Control
An area of high pressure will build in overhead today, keeping our weather sunny and quiet.
Temperatures vary quite a bit this morning based on topography, ranging from some pockets of upper 30s all the way to the low 50s. As the sun rises, temperatures will become a bit more uniform.
There are also a few morning clouds skirting across the Southern Tier. These will move out and dissipate by the mid-morning. The rest of the region, and the rest of the day, should be cloud-free and sunny.
Winds will be lighter than yesterday, but still out of the northwest. Wind speeds will be just over 5 mph with minimal gusting.
Temperatures today will mainly be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. The best chance to get above 70 degrees will be in the valleys from Geneseo and Dansville to Elmira to Binghamton.
It will be another clear, cool night, with most areas getting a few degrees colder than last night. This means more areas sneaking into the upper 30s, especially across Cortland, Tioga, and portions of eastern Tompkins County. Some pockets of frost cannot be ruled out.
Low 40s with pockets of upper 30s will also be possible across the Southern Tier, while more northern and near-lake areas stick to the mid 40s.
Thursday will be sunny, though some passing thin clouds will be possible at times. Winds will be nearly calm for the morning with high pressure directly overhead, and then from the north at under 5 mph for the afternoon.
While the morning will be slightly cooler, the afternoon will be slightly warmer, with more areas reaching or getting above 70 degrees. A few hilltops may still stick to the mid 60s, especially between Cortland and Syracuse.
No change in the pattern is expected Thursday night, with more widespread low and mid 40s. A slight southeast wind will develop, which may be just enough to keep most areas out of the 30s.
Friday is looking sunny with highs another degree or two higher, with most places in the low and mid 70s.
Uncertain Weather This Weekend, Next Week
This weekend, an area of low pressure will develop along the Eastern Seaboard and track northward along the coastline.
The models still vary quite a bit with the path of the rain associated with this low but have overall taken a substantial step towards the rain missing the area.
Saturday continues to look dry but a bit on the cloudy side. It remains to be seen how thick the clouds are, and at least some sunshine may be able to penetrate the overcast.
The limited sunshine should knock temperatures back a few degrees with highs in the mid and upper 60s.
Sunday is our next chance for rain, but it is becoming increasingly possible that it will be a dry, possibly even sunny day. I have kept a raindrop icon in the 7-day forecast because the confidence is low still and there are models that bring rain into the area.
Monday and Tuesday have a similar situation with low confidence in the forecast. Rain will be possible both days, but again, it could just as easily end up staying dry and sunny.
If it does stay sunny, it does not necessarily mean it will get warmer. North winds are expected behind the coastal low, holding temperatures in the 60s.
Looking further into next week, there seems to be little change. The models remain split on rain chances, though most that show rain earlier in the period continue the showers through the week, while those that stay dry early on continue to show dry weather.
Temperatures should continue to be in the range of the mid 60s to low 70s, which is pretty much right on average for the end of September.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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