Friday-Saturday Weather
A frontal boundary extends eastward from low pressure over Nebraska, through the Ohio River Valley, and into the Mid-Atlantic region this morning.
Over the next 24 hours, the low will track east-northeast, dragging this boundary northward as it does so. However, high pressure over central Canada will push back with dry air circulating southward across eastern Canada and into the northeastern United States.
This setup will drive our weather over the next two days as the low approaches, deflects to the southeast, then redevelops along the Mid-Atlantic coast.
For today, all we can really expect from this setup is a gradual increase in some clouds from the west and a steady north wind resulting from the high pressure system.
Wind speeds will be in the 5-10 mph range. Though light, it will be enough to knock temperatures back several degrees compared to yesterday. Only a handful of the typically warmer valley and urban locations are expected to reach 60 degrees, with upper 50s and higher elevation mid 50s more common.
Skies will be mixed throughout the day, with sunny periods, areas of scattered to numerous lower clouds, and a gradually increasing deck of thin clouds aloft. Skies may become primarily overcast by sunset and should be mostly cloudy through the night.
The first rain showers will start to arrive during the predawn hours from the west. This will transition to an area of steady precipitation that will split the region as the battle zone between the high and low pressure systems sets up overhead.
Rain is likely across the Southern Tier and western areas of the region. Far northeastern areas, meanwhile, have little chance of rain. The big question will be where the edge of the rain sets up in between.
There is a zone that runs northwest to southeast through the heart of our region that is about 35 miles wide that most models place the edge of the rain somewhere within. North of this edge, there will still be some occasional rain showers, but to the south, steady rain will fall.
Areas inside this zone, labeled “battle zone” on the accompanying graphic, should probably plan for at least a few showers with the chance for steadier rain. The further south in this zone, the greater the chances for steady rain.
Where it rains steadily, amounts over a half-inch will be possible. Temperatures will also be held to the low 50s or even upper 40s. Where it does not rain much or at all, highs may sneak into the mid 50s.
The rain will be around throughout the day, though it should taper off sometime later in the afternoon. Some eastern areas may not see the rain begin in earnest until the late morning.
Showery and Cool Behind the Low
Cool air behind the low will interact with the Great Lakes and some subtle disturbances to keep our weather cloudy and showery for a few more days.
Sunday does not look like a washout, but scattered showers are likely. A few glimpses of sunshine may be possible, but overall, it looks like a cloudy day.
North-northwest winds will increase to over 10 mph on Sunday with a few gusts to 30 mph. High temperatures will be in the 50-55 degree range with a few higher elevations sticking to the upper 40s.
Monday will have a higher chance for rain than Sunday, but still not as widespread or significant as on Saturday.
Winds will be from the north but with speeds closer to 5 mph than 10 mph. High temperatures will be a degree or two warmer than Sunday, but that is about it.
A few lingering showers will be possible on Tuesday, but of these three days, Tuesday seems to have the lowest rain chances. I would not be surprised to see some sun poke in and out of the clouds from time to time.
Winds on Tuesday will be light from the northwest with highs mostly in the mid 50s. Nighttime temperatures throughout this period will stick to the low and mid 40s.
Wednesday looks dry, though there may still be a fair bit of lingering cloud cover. Sunshine is more likely on Thursday. Temperatures will stick to the mid 50s Wednesday before jumping to around 60 degrees on Tuesday.
The weather late next week looks uncertain, but overall temperatures look up and there will be at least some chance for rain at some point.
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. 
john bruzdzinski
Drew:
Just curious…I can’t remember…do you make a winter season prediction (temperature, precipitation)?
Thanks.
John B.
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi John. No, that isn’t something I do. I like to just focus in on the next 3-7 days in detail with a peek out up to about 2 weeks. The only long range forecasting I would trust (and even then, I don’t trust it much), is from the Climate Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service. Here are their seasonal outlooks: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php