A southwest flow of air has set up over our region as high pressure over the Southeastern United States takes over control of our weather.
There is still a large amount of low level moisture left behind by the departed low pressure system. Clouds are widespread this morning across the area and will be stubborn today.
Generally overcast skies are likely through the morning and into the early afternoon hours. Gradually, the clouds will begin to break up and glimpses of sunshine will become more common. It will probably not become truly partly cloudy until near or after sunset.
The chances for rain are extremely low today, but not quite at zero. A stray shower to the east of Cayuga Lake this afternoon cannot be ruled out.
Nonetheless, temperatures will creep upwards today thanks to the light southwest winds. Areas along and north of I-90, through the Genesee Valley, and into the river valleys from Bath to Binghamton will see highs top out around 60 degrees this afternoon. Mid and upper 50s are likely elsewhere in the region, depending on elevation.
Skies will become mostly clear tonight until some thin clouds begin to move in towards sunrise. The southwest wind will prevent it from getting too cold, with lows in the low and mid 40s with a few pockets of upper 30s in the usually colder areas across the Southern Tier and into Central New York.
Thursday will be the opposite of today, with clouds slowly increasing, but with a good deal of sunshine overall. The sun may not be significantly filtered by thin overcast until the mid to late afternoon.
Winds on Thursday will turn to the south and increase to near 10 mph. This, along with the sunshine, will help temperatures rise several more degrees. Pockets of upper 60s are possible near Dansville, Rochester, and Syracuse. Many other areas will get into the mid 60s, with low 60s in higher elevations.
Thursday evening will be breezy and mild, with south winds persisting near 10 mph. Evening temperatures will be in the mid and upper 50s, with overnight lows in the low 50s.
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Rain Through the Weekend
The first showers will start to arrive in our area between midnight Thursday night and dawn Friday. While the greatest chances for rain will be over the western Finger Lakes, rain will be possible anywhere.
Rain showers will persist throughout, making only slow eastward progress. Some areas may see several hours of prolonged showers, while others are more hit-and-miss throughout Friday. None of the rain is expected to be overly heavy.
Despite the showers, temperatures will remain mild, with south winds increasing slightly higher. Low and mid 60s will be common, but most areas should end up a degree or two shy of Thursday’s highs.
Rain will continue Friday night but should eventually pull out to the northeast. This may open a window for some dry weather early Saturday before moisture wraps around low pressure along the New England coast and back into our area.
As this low develops and strengthens, winds will turn to the northwest on Saturday, pulling cooler air into the region. The cool air and added moisture will kick off lake enhanced rain showers during the afternoon.
These showers will be possible throughout the region, but the steadiest and heaviest showers will be in the favored lake effect areas across the northern and eastern Finger Lakes.
Saturday’s winds will be near 10 mph during the day, increasing to 10-15 mph by Sunday morning. Northwest winds will peak near 15 mph during Sunday afternoon with gusts of 30-35 mph.
Temperatures will make a rapid descent thanks to these winds, with highs Saturday in the mid 50s and lows Sunday morning in the upper 30s and low 40s despite the clouds and showers.
Showers will persist on Sunday but should gradually come to an end late in the day. Most areas will not even reach 50 degrees Sunday afternoon, and some may even have trouble reaching 45 degrees.
High pressure will quickly build in behind this system, bringing partly cloudy skies Monday and clear skies Tuesday. Frost and freeze conditions are looking increasingly likely, especially Tuesday morning. Stay tuned.
Warmer weather should then build in for the middle and end of next week with highs probably making another run into the 60s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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