Warm to Cool
Warm air remains locked in place over the Finger Lakes this morning, but will start to erode away after today.
On the weather map this morning, there is an area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast and the weak remains of a second low over Lake Erie. A wedge of somewhat drier air is wrapping around the second low and into the Finger Lakes.
This has our region off to a mostly dry start today, though there are still plenty of clouds around. If there are going to be any breaks of sunshine today, they will likely happen this morning while the dry air holds.
Temperatures will once again rise to around 50 degrees, though winds will be nearly calm between these two low pressure systems. Only a whisper of an east wind will blow today.
Atmospheric moisture should increase this afternoon, and some rain showers will start to move back into the area. On and off rain showers are possible through the afternoon, evening, and overnight. Widespread steady rain is not expected.
There could also be some areas of fog and drizzle, especially tonight and early Friday.
Overnight lows will mostly be just above 40 degrees, but a few areas of the western Southern Tier could slip into the upper 30s.
On Friday, the coastal low will exit out over the Atlantic Ocean while the Lake Erie low will completely dissipate. A new weak low will form over Vermont, shifting our winds to the west. A front will develop from east to west over Lake Ontario.
This front will be the focal point for showers, so the northern half of the region will stand a better chance for rain during the middle of the day Friday than the southern half. Temperatures will not be quite as warm on Friday with highs mostly in the mid 40s. A few southern areas may sneak into the upper 40s.
During the afternoon, the front will start to sag southward, pushing precipitation further into the Finger Lakes. Widespread showers are expected Friday evening, some of which may start to mix with or turn to snow as winds turn to the northwest.
Quieter Stretch of Weather
The front will clear the area before dawn Saturday, leaving just a few lake effect snow showers in its wake for Saturday morning. Temperatures Saturday morning will start in the low and mid 30s.
Northwest winds will become locked in on Saturday, keeping skies cloudy and temperatures from rising much. Lake effect flurries will continue but be sporadic and without any real impact or accumulation.
Afternoon highs will mainly be in the mid and upper 30s. The best chance for seeing 40 degrees will be in the broad valleys of the Southern Tier from Bath to Binghamton.
Any lingering lake effect should dissipate by Saturday evening, but clouds will remain plentiful through the night and into Sunday. No precipitation is currently expected on Sunday during the daytime hours, with highs almost matching Saturday.
However, Sunday is New Year’s Eve, and by the time 2024 is rung in, some light snow showers may be moving into the region. Light snow showers will continue into New Year’s morning on Monday. A light dusting is all that is expected for accumulation, if that.
Monday will trend drier as the day goes on but will likely remain cloudy. Temperatures will take another step back with highs in the low and mid 30s. Monday night will be our first upcoming night with widespread temperatures down into the 20s.
Tuesday will transition from some morning clouds to afternoon sun, while Wednesday should have a mix of sun and clouds. The extra sun will help temperatures rise to the upper 30s both days.
Temperatures in the 30s are favored for the foreseeable future thereafter, though the spread in possible temperatures increases greatly in both directions after next weekend. Coinciding with the large spread in possible temperatures is an increased chance for precipitation.
This is likely indicating an active but highly uncertain weather pattern where storm track will have a large impact on the type of weather we see for the first half of January.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
