Wednesday-Thursday Weather Forecast
A small wedge of high pressure has moved into the Finger Lakes behind yesterday’s fluffy snow event.
Skies are mostly clear this morning with the exception of some stray lake effect clouds. Temperatures are in the single digits throughout the region.
Overall, there will not be much change throughout the day. Skies will remain sunny to mixed and temperatures will remain well below average.
Most areas will not reach or get above 20 degrees today. Southwest winds will pick up during the midday and early afternoon with speeds of 10-15 mph, making it feel like -5 to +10 degrees.
Widespread clouds will not return until around midnight as the next weather maker approaches from the west. Temperatures will initially drop into the low and mid 10s this evening but will then rise several degrees overnight.
Winds will become a bit more westerly and a bit less southerly overnight as well, bringing some snow showers off Lake Erie into the northern half of the Finger Lakes. An inch or two may be possible along and north of the Thruway as far east as Wayne and Ontario counties.
Widespread light snow moves in Thursday morning, falls for several hours, then dissipates during the latter half of the afternoon.
Most areas will only see an inch or so of accumulation, but locally 2 or 3 inches is not out of the question. Like yesterday, the snow may be quite fluffy, leading to easy accumulations.
Temperatures on Thursday will rise to the mid 20s during the afternoon, then will slowly drop during the evening. Overnight lows will be in the mid and upper 10s.
Weekend Snow, Warmer Next Week
On Friday, low pressure will track to our south and east, possibly spreading more light snow into the region.
The models are somewhat mixed on this event, as they were before Tuesday’s snow which followed a similar path.
At this time, I am expecting snow to move in during the predawn hours and continue for much of the day. Some moderate snow bands within the broader area of snow may impact parts of the southern and eastern halves of the region.
With temperatures holding in the low and mid 20s, the snow may yet again be quite fluffy, which could lead to the models again underestimating the degree to which the snow will accumulate. Accumulations could end up in the 2-5 inch range with locally higher amounts again.
Another shot of cold air will move in behind this system, this time on northwest winds. Lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario Friday Night and continue throughout Saturday.
The highest accumulations Saturday will be across Wayne, northern Cayuga, and into Onondaga counties. Early estimates are for 4-8 inches with locally higher amounts, which means some sort of winter weather alert will likely be issued by the National Weather Service.
Snow amounts will be lighter outside of the main bands, with little to no accumulation across the Southern Tier.
Winds will also kick up on Saturday with gusts as high as 30 mph. This will cause blowing and drifting of the fluffy snow.
Saturday will start with temperatures near or under 10 degrees. Afternoon highs will only reach the mid 10s with wind chills around 0 degrees.
Lingering lake snows will persist into Sunday morning but will dissipate, leaving some sun for the afternoon. Temperatures will start to rise with highs in the mid 20s.
Monday will bring temperatures back above freezing with highs in the mid 30s. It will be a cool morning, though, with lows in the low 10s. Skies will be mixed with no precipitation expected.
Active weather looks possible for much of next week, but especially the latter half of the week. Temperatures will continue to climb and should spend a good amount of time above 40 degrees. That should keep most of what falls next week wet, not white.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Becky S.
I’d say those “weather EXPERTS” never heard of the typical JANUARY THAW that occurs nearly every winter, then is followed by MORE wintry weather. Sheesh! That’s no “climate change”!
Gail B. Dalmat
I don’t read news stories on the weather often, but friends across the continent have struggled lately, and 19 hours without power or heat last week wasn’t my idea of a picnic.
SO, I read this AP article today “US in deep freeze while much of the world is extra toasty.”
One paragraph caught my eye, because it deals with the weather this month.
Winter weather expert Judah Cohen of Atmospheric Environmental Research, a commercial firm outside of Boston.
AND Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini said–
“this cold snap in the United States will fade in several days to be replaced by unusually warm weather, due to climate change. But another polar vortex looks like it’s coming at the end of the month, though not as strong as this one, they said.”
Are they talking through their hats, or should I stock up on “hot hands” for my mittens, lol?
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
I would be skeptical of any weather source that 1) directly pins single events on climate change (or, as an opposite, directly claims a single event disproves climate change) and 2) loosely throws terms like “polar vortex” around.
Also interesting in how the AP managed to get two different scientists in completely different locations and fields to say the same thing. Just speculation on my part, but it seems like they had to hunt around for a couple of people with impressive titles that fit their story’s agenda…
The NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks, which go through the end of January, show zero signs of any so-called polar vortex invasions into the USA. THIS jives well with what I see on the models.
Gail B. Dalmat
Thank you! I had to search the article and backtrack to the two “experts'” I wanted you to have them because I’m not familiar with the reputations of either institution and hadn’t ever heard of the two people, either. Other than my usual reactions to the weather, and to the 19 cold hours I spent last week, I will NOT make any drastic plans or purchase based on their statement (s). I will also not cry “wolf” to others.