Strong Storms, Heavy Rain
A slow moving frontal boundary will serve as a source for thunderstorms and heavy rain as low pressure develops along the front late today.
This front is to the north this morning, stretching across southern Canada back into Michigan. The front will sag southward today, ending up over our region this afternoon.
The position of the front will be key to some of the fine details in the forecast later today.
Before that, though, skies will be a mix of clouds and some sunny breaks. Sunshine will be more likely in the morning than the afternoon.
Temperatures will push back into the low and mid 80s again today. Unlike yesterday, there will be a notable increase in humidity. Dewpoints are already well into the 60s across the region this morning.
One thing the front will determine is how high the dewpoints stay this afternoon. This, in turn, will influence how much fuel there is for thunderstorms.
Any storms that do develop will have some wind energy in the atmosphere to work with, potentially leading to some damaging wind gusts.
The chances for severe weather are greatest across the Southern Tier with perhaps a greater threat still down to our south across Pennsylvania. If the front stays a little further north, the severe threat will come north as well. Likewise, if the front sags further south, most of the severe weather will stay over Pennsylvania.
Heavy rain will also be somewhat of a concern, again with the placement determined by the frontal position and the thunderstorms. The whole area should see rain, however, with a widespread rain event unfolding late this afternoon and evening.
The timing of the onset of rain and thunderstorms will be between 4-6 pm, roughly speaking. The rain will last for several hours into the evening before tapering to showers overnight.
Rain amounts will be highly variable and may end up anywhere from a couple tenths of an inch, to locally over an inch or nearly two inches.
Scattered light showers will continue overnight and into the morning hours on Thursday. Eventually, though, some sun should work its way out Thursday afternoon.
Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with morning lows around 60 degrees and afternoon highs in the low and mid 70s.
Another Round Saturday
Friday will get off to a chilly start with lows ranging anywhere from the mid 40s to the low 50s, thanks to clear skies overnight.
The clear skies will persist for most of Friday before some thin clouds build in late. Highs will be comfortable in the mid 70s.
These clouds will thicken Friday night and some predawn showers will be possible along a warm front.
Showers may continue into Saturday morning before ending for a time. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Saturday afternoon and evening.
The atmosphere will become very humid with copious amounts of moisture. Heavy rain could be a concern, especially if today’s rain totals end up on the higher end of the spectrum. Severe weather may also become a concern with some strong winds aloft, which can help organize and strengthen storms.
Scattered showers are likely to persist on Sunday with a few more lingering into Monday. Temperatures through the weekend will be in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees but will drop to the low 70s on Monday.
The middle of next week looks dry before more active weather late in the week. Temperatures should build well into the 80s during the dry period.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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