Weather Hazards Tuesday, Wednesday
Active weather will have impacts on day-to-day life in portions of the Finger Lakes Tuesday and Wednesday.
A steady stream of tropical moisture ahead of the remains of Beryl will increase the humidity levels across the region today as temperatures also rise.
Heat advisories have been issued for much of the Finger Lakes, focusing on the southeastern half of the region, which is served by the National Weather Service office in Binghamton. More northern and western counties, served by the Buffalo office, do not have heat advisories as of early Tuesday morning.
Beneath a mix of sun and clouds, temperatures should rise into the upper 80s and low 90s this afternoon. Dewpoints will be in the 60s but may fluctuate at times. Urban heat index values could approach 100 degrees if dewpoints stay on the higher side.
There will be a small chance for a stray shower or storm late this afternoon. These will be slightly more likely in the north and west. Most areas will not see any daytime rain today.
Clouds will increase tonight with a few more isolated showers and storms. Overnight lows will only make it down to around 70 degrees as dewpoints continue to rise.
By Wednesday morning, the atmosphere as a whole will be extremely moisture-laden as the remains of Beryl continue northeastward. This is a rare, 99th percentile set up with regard to the moisture, which will not only make it uncomfortable, but will help set up the hazardous afternoon weather.
A warm front will lift north through the region early in the morning, possibly with a few early showers and storms. The sun should work out behind the front later in the morning and into the afternoon, propelling temperatures into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees again.
This will provide more than enough fuel for scattered to widespread thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours.
Particularly during the early to mid afternoon, conditions will be favorable for isolated supercell thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and tornadoes. The tornado risk is unusually high for this event relative to our area and climatology. I would expect a tornado watch across the region with the potential for multiple tornado warnings.
Whether a tornado, or multiple tornadoes, actually touch down is impossible to tell ahead of time.
Thunderstorms will also be heavy rain producers. While widespread flooding is not expected, localized areas could see flash floods, especially if multiple storms move over the same area repeatedly.
As always, even with a heightened severe weather risk, the vast majority of individual locations across the region will not see severe weather. But it will be important to be aware of the weather tomorrow afternoon and to take warnings seriously, as there may well be a few areas that get hit particularly hard with dangerous weather.
I will be having extra coverage of the severe weather tomorrow afternoon, providing the forecast does not shift, which is always a possibility. Confidence in this event occurring is on the rise, though.
Later Week Weather
The thunderstorm threat will diminish in the hours after sunset as the daytime heating is lost and storms rumble their way eastward and out of the region. A few stray showers will be possible overnight, but dewpoints should begin to drop. Overnight lows will still be in the upper 60s.
Thursday is a bit uncertain with the ratio of rain showers to sunny breaks. Expect at least a bit of both. It will be a cooler, less humid day with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s.
A stretch of sunshine and dry weather will build in starting Friday. Temperatures will be comfortable in the low 80s.
Dry weather will persist through the weekend with temperatures on the rise again. Expect mid 80s on Saturday and upper 80s Sunday. A few places may hit 90 degrees on Sunday.
Little change is expected into Monday, though the possibility of a few showers may need to be watched.
The middle of next week will have a better chance for rain, followed by some slightly cooler temperatures for a couple of days.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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