Complex Weather System
An area of low pressure is developing near Lake Erie this morning but will be replaced by a coastal low tomorrow.
For the most part, today will just be a cloudy but mild day. South and southeast winds will be light this morning but will slowly increase through the afternoon.
A stray spit of rain cannot be ruled out, but for the most part, the daytime hours will remain dry.
Temperatures will mostly reach the upper 50s today, but a few of the warmer valley locations in the Southern Tier and Genesee Valley will reach or even slightly exceed 60 degrees.
A large area of rain will move in from the southwest this evening. While the models bring this in during the latter half of the evening, this type of system often moves in quicker than the models indicate by 1-3 hours.
The leading edge of this rain will have a burst of heavy rain, some gusty winds, and possibly a couple rumbles of thunder. I am expecting this to track across our region during the first half of the evening.
Steady rain will follow for at least a few hours into the overnight. The forward speed of the rain will slow down as it passes through, but by sunrise Thursday, the area should be primarily rain free again.
Winds will turn to the northwest as the rain moves through, and despite a mild evening in the 40s and low 50s, temperatures will quickly fall to the low and mid 30s overnight.
As the coastal low takes shape, precipitation will reverse course and come back at our region from the east. Precipitation should be widespread across the entire area no later than sunset, but likely earlier in the afternoon.
Even before the sun sets, some higher elevations, particularly in the southeastern Finger Lakes, may see snow start to take over as the primary precipitation type. After sunset, snow will become more common.
It is now looking like most areas south of Route 20/I-90 and away from the immediate lake shores will at least see some snow mix in overnight. Snow accumulation will be highly elevation and location dependent.
The best chance for snow accumulation of several inches will be in the higher elevations, especially above 1400 feet, between Elmira, Ithaca, Cortland, and Binghamton. This is where the precipitation will be heaviest as the coastal low tracks northeast inland and stalls overnight.
As Weekend Weather Winds Down, Winter Awaits
Low pressure will only slowly depart the region over the weekend, keeping out weather at least somewhat unsettled.
Precipitation should taper off on Friday from north to south as dry air works in. Temperatures should also warm enough for precipitation to change back to all rain over the course of Friday morning.
Scattered showers will continue to be possible throughout the day and into Friday night.
Winds will be stronger on Friday than Thursday, coming in from the north and northeast at 10-15 mph. High temperatures will mainly be in the low 40s.
Showers will become less numerous still on Saturday, and by Sunday, just a few stray lingering showers are expected, mainly during the morning hours.
Winds will remain blustery from the northwest, with 10-15 mph speeds on Saturday and near 15 mph speeds on Sunday. Top gusts both days will be 30-35 mph.
Temperatures will come up slightly with highs in the mid 40s.
A new weather system will pass through on Monday with just a few showers, which may linger into Tuesday.
Cold air will then build in with a Winter-like feel settling in. High temperatures will be near or under 40 degrees for the days around Thanksgiving with some lake effect snow showers possible.
As we head into December, highs should remain well down into the 30s.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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