Pre-Thanksgiving Weather
The weather this week will be characterized by two main weather systems, one tonight into Tuesday, and the other coming on Thanksgiving Day, Thursday.
The region is starting off with some sunshine and a few clouds this Monday morning. Clouds will gradually increase throughout the day today as low pressure tracks across Michigan and into Ontario, Canada tonight.
No rain is expected during the daytime hours, but scattered showers will build in this evening. These will transition to a steadier light rain overnight, which will linger into early Tuesday morning. Rain amounts will average around a quarter to a third of an inch.
Winds will be nearly calm through the morning and into the early afternoon. South and southeast winds will start to build later in this afternoon and into the evening. Wind speeds of 10-15 mph are expected overnight.
Afternoon highs today will range through the mid and upper 40s with a few warmer valley locations across the Southern Tier hitting 50 degrees. Evening temperatures will drop to upper 30s and low 40s this evening, then rise back into the mid and even upper 40s overnight.
Tuesday will be cloudy with spits of rain and blustery winds. The wind will turn to the west-southwest and increase to 15-20 mph. Gusts will approach 40 mph over much of the region and may go over 40 mph for areas west of Canandaigua Lake.
Temperatures will be warmest Tuesday morning with highs reaching near 50 degrees. Afternoon temperatures will slip back to the mid 40s with 30s returning early in the evening.
A few lake effect flurries will be possible off Lake Erie Tuesday night, scattered about the region with no accumulation expected. Winds will not be as strong as during the day, and nighttime lows will reach around 30 degrees.
Wednesday looks quiet with some early sun and gradually increasing clouds. Winds will be light from the south with highs in the low and mid 40s.
Winter Arrives with Thanksgiving Snow
Low pressure will develop over Oklahoma early Wednesday and race northeast, reaching eastern Pennsylvania by Thursday afternoon.
To the north of the low, air should be cold enough to support at least partial snow falling across our region.
This looks like another elevation dependent system and is unlikely to match last week’s winter kickoff. Still, Thursday is a major holiday and travel will be high, making even a moderate winter weather event more impactful than usual.
At this point, the details are still too uncertain for amounts. Slight shifts in the projected track of the low pressure could introduce more warm air to the region, push the core of heaviest precipitation out of the area, or alter how strong the low is as it passes by.
For those with travel plans Thursday, now is not the time to panic, but to be aware that the weather may turn sloppy. Planning for extra travel time, or pushing travel to Wednesday, is not unreasonable.
Be wary of the inevitable hype that is sure to flood the airwaves and social media feeds. Again, even in a worst-case scenario, this looks like an overall moderate but still meaningful winter weather event for at least parts of the region.
This weather system looks as though it will break autumn and send us into winter. Temperatures behind the system will peak in the 30s daily, and by the start of next week, daily highs may not be getting above the freezing mark.
This looks like a prolonged pattern as well, with cold weather solidly entrenched through the first half of December.
The cold air in turn will kick up the lake effect with big-time snows possible in the typical snowbelts outside of the Finger Lakes. Travel north of Syracuse toward Watertown, and south of Buffalo, may be significantly impacted over the holiday weekend. However, travel in the Finger Lakes Friday, Saturday, and Sunday looks fairly easy going so far.
Stay tuned for more details and do not be afraid to get in touch if you need extra assistance navigating the weather challenges this week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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