High winds, snow squalls, and lake effect tonight into Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday december 4 2024 grasses and weeds poke through a layer of snow with forest and hills in the background. The sky looks threatening with billowing grey clouds.
Adverse weather conditions will start to ramp up tonight and persist through Thursday, though there will be plenty of variety across both time and location throughout this event. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Wintry Blast

An area of low pressure will pass through tonight and early Thursday with a strong cold front.

This system will bring occasional snow squalls tonight and early Thursday, followed by a round of lake effect later Thursday, all while producing high winds that will reduce visibility with blowing snow.

There may be a few bouts of mainly light to moderate snow during the day today ahead of this system. In particular, the late morning and early afternoon may have some snow.

The rest of the daytime hours should generally be just clouds. Winds will be light this morning but will gradually ramp up during the afternoon.

Look for highs today to be similar to the last couple of days in the low to mid 30s.

Winds will continue to increase from the south this evening as snow settles in. The snow may be on and off at times this evening, but will be more widespread than not. Embedded within the broader area of snow may be some heavier bursts.

An inch or two may fall this evening before the widespread snow moves out around midnight. Evening temperatures will initially drop to the upper 20s and low 30s but will rise back to the mid 30s by the middle of the night.

Snow squalls will become increasingly likely during the predawn and morning hours of Thursday. Individual squalls may be brief, but intense, especially with winds gusting as high as 40 mph.

The squalls will also be quick moving, meaning they will have a sudden onset with rapidly changing and worsening travel conditions as they blow through. Near zero visibility will be a possibility due to the heavy snow rate and winds. As suddenly as they arrive, they will move on, behaving similarly to a summertime thunderstorm.

As we head into Thursday afternoon, winds will peak with gusts of 40-50 mph turning from the south to the northwest. Once the winds shift, the snow will transition over to lake effect southeast of Lake Ontario.

Wayne, Cayuga, Onondaga, and northern Cortland counties in particular may see consistent moderate to heavy snow Thursday afternoon and evening with locally over 6 inches accumulating.

Snow will be possible outside of these areas as well, but with minor accumulations.

The lake effect will wind down on Friday morning, as will the strong winds. Temperatures will not move a whole lot on Thursday, generally remaining in the low 30s or dropping slightly in the afternoon. Thursday night will bottom out in the upper 10s and low 20s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed dec 4 | wed, on and of snow showers mid 30 | thur, windy areas of snow low 30 | fri, scattered snow showers upper 20 | sat, scattered snow showers near 30 | sun, mostly cloudy a shower? low 40 | mon, periods of rain mid 40 | tues, scattered rain showers low 50
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Turning Warm

As the lake effect and wind die down on Friday, some breaks of sun may be possible.

It will be a chilly day with highs in the mid and upper 20s. Winds will become more westerly during the afternoon and evening, causing a few snow showers off Lake Erie to eventually move back into the region while the Lake Ontario snow lifts north and intensifies over the Tug Hill.

Snow showers will linger into Saturday but with little real impact on day-to-day activities.

Temperatures will rebound slightly with highs around 30 degrees. Saturday night will not be quite as cold either, with lows in the mid 20s.

Warmer air will start to push in on Sunday with highs making it into the low 40s. Skies will be cloudy and a stray rain shower cannot be totally ruled out.

Rain will move in on Monday and possibly fall throughout much of the day. Temperatures will continue to climb with highs in the mid 40s.

Tuesday will see the peak of the warmth with many areas getting to or above 50 degrees. Scattered rain showers will continue to be possible.

Temperatures should return to the 30s later next week, but there may be another bump up in temperature towards the beginning of the following week.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed dec 4 | wed, on and of snow showers mid 30 | thur, windy areas of snow low 30 | fri, scattered snow showers upper 20 | sat, scattered snow showers near 30 | sun, mostly cloudy a shower? low 40 | mon, periods of rain mid 40 | tues, scattered rain showers low 50
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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