Mild today before rain returns tomorrow, turns to snow late

Mid-Week Weather

A cold front stretching from the Upper Great Lakes into the lower Mississippi River Valley will slowly make its way eastward as low pressure develops and strengthens along the front.

For today, the front will remain to our west and the primary low will be far to the north over Canada.

This will ensure a mild and relatively quiet day today.

South winds will low with speeds of 5-10 mph today before turning to the southeast and increasing late.

Clouds will be plentiful throughout the day, but rain will be harder to come by. Areas of fog this morning may be slow to lift as well.

Only spits of drizzle or an isolated brief shower are expected until scattered showers increase late this afternoon. Scattered showers will continue off and on throughout the evening and overnight.

Temperatures will rise to the upper 40s and low 50s this afternoon. Only a slight drop in temperature is expected after sunset, with mid and upper 40s likely holding on through the overnight.

The weather will begin to become more active early tomorrow morning, with rain becoming more widespread over the eastern half of the region. Precipitation will gradually expand westward with widespread, steady precipitation likely by the early afternoon.

The cold front itself will also pass through Wednesday during the morning or midday hours. Temperatures will hold in the mid and upper 40s until the frontal passage, after which they will start to drop.

Rain will turn to snow during the late afternoon and evening, but not for all areas. Higher elevations will see the change over first and have the greatest chance of seeing a couple inches accumulate. Most areas across the southern half of the region should eventually change over.

However, more northern areas will hold on to the rain longer and possibly through the end of the steady precipitation.

All in all, this will be another highly variable event, but impacts will overall be on the lower side with the highest snow accumulations on the order of just 2-4 inches.

Total precipitation will be the equivalent of an inch or more of rain for areas east of Cayuga Lake with lesser amounts the further west you go.

Cool Late Week Weather

Temperatures will drop steadily Wednesday night as winds turn to the west-southwest and increase to 10-15 mph. By Thursday morning, many areas will be between 20-25 degrees and some 10s will be found in the Southern Tier.

Lake effect snow will not take long to develop, but with the wind direction, our region will only be impacted by snows off Lake Erie.

These should manifest as scattered flurries and brief snow bursts Thursday and Thursday night. Accumulations will be minimal and localized.

The wind will probably be a bigger story than snow on Thursday. West-southwest winds will increase to around 20 mph, peaking during the midday and first half of the afternoon. Top gusts will be around 40 mph with the strongest winds across the western and northern areas.

Afternoon highs will mainly be in the mid and upper 20s, but with the wind, it will feel like the 10s and even single digits.

Wind speeds will drop somewhat Thursday night and will not be anything spectacular on Friday. The lighter wind speeds will make it more difficult for snows off Lake Erie to penetrate this far inland.

While a few stray flurries will be possible, especially in the southwestern quadrant of the region, most areas will be dry most of the time. Some sun should even make an appearance.

It will remain cold, though, with morning lows well into the 10s and afternoon highs in the mid 20s.

Saturday will be similar to Friday, but warmer. Morning lows will again be in the 10s, but afternoon highs will make it into the mid 30s. Skies should be partly cloudy.

Sunday will turn cloudy with some minor rain and snow showers around. Highs will push toward 40 degrees.

Mild weather is again expected early next week before a cooler second half of the week.

As we approach Christmas, the models favor cooler weather with some chances for snow, so there will be at least some hope for a slightly White Christmas. It is far too early to make any true declarations one way or the other, though.

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.