Early Week Weather
A large weather system is passing through the Ohio River Valley and Mid-Atlantic today.
This system will remain to our south today, though a few flurries may just manage to cross the New York-Pennsylvania state line this morning.
However, it is nearby enough that is has disrupted the lake effect machine for today.
Therefore, it will be a quiet, albeit cloudy, day across the Finger Lakes today. Winds will be light from the north and highs will generally be in the low 20s.
Winds will start to increase late this afternoon into the evening, gradually becoming more northwesterly overnight. By the morning, wind speeds will be around 15 mph with gusts locally over 30 mph.
As the wind becomes northwesterly, lake effect snow will begin to redevelop southeast of Lake Ontario. The snow should begin to break out no later than midnight tonight but will become heaviest Tuesday morning.
This batch of lake effect will be a bit further south and east than last week’s snow, favoring Wayne, Cayuga, southern Onondaga, and northern Cortland counties. Northern portions of Seneca and Tompkins county may see some accumulation as well.
The snow may let up slightly Tuesday afternoon, only to pick up again in the same areas Tuesday evening.
Snow amounts by sunrise Tuesday should be a coating to an inch or two. Locally a couple inches will fall Tuesday morning and afternoon, with several more overnight. The best chance for locally 6 inches or more will be around Skaneateles and Otisco lakes.
Outside of the primary lake effect areas described above, there may be a couple inches of snow in the Bristol Hills from some secondary lake influences from Lake Huron, but the rest of the region should see just a coating to locally an inch or so.
All the while, northwest winds will be blustery. During the day Tuesday, gusts will be as high as 40 mph. These will back off to around 30 mph Tuesday night.
Temperatures Tuesday will be around the mid 20s for highs with mid 10s both at dawn and Tuesday night.
More of the Same
Lake effect snow will continue through Wednesday and Thursday, likely fluctuating in its position and intensity throughout the time period.
As it looks now, the snow should be fairly light for much of the day on Wednesday, but will intensify Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The same areas mentioned above are most likely to see the heaviest snow, but additional snow outside of those areas will be possible, especially on Thursday.
Additional snow totals of 3-6 inches are likely Wednesday and Thursday for many areas north of I-90 from Rochester to Syracuse, with locally higher amounts across eastern Cayuga, southern Onondaga, and northern Cortland counties.
As always, lake effect can be highly localized with large variations over small areas. Lake effect is also a difficult to pinpoint weather phenomena and generally does what it wants, regardless of what is expected of it.
Winds will remain gusty through Thursday, with gusts around 35 mph both Wednesday and Thursday. These winds will remain from the northwest, though may become more northerly or more westerly at times.
Temperatures will take a dip on Wednesday with most areas remaining in the mid and upper 10s for afternoon highs. With the wind chill, it will feel near or below zero most of the day.
Thursday will be a touch warmer with highs around 20 degrees.
The lake effect should wind down later Thursday and we should end the week with another quiet day on Friday. There may even be some early sunshine and highs will return to the mid 20s.
A small weather system will bring some light, widespread snow on Saturday, followed by cloudy weather on Sunday. Highs both days should manage to reach the upper 20s.
Winds next week look more westerly, which could mean another round of heavy snow for areas just northeast of the Finger Lakes. Like last week, minor snow amounts would be expected in the Finger Lakes if this pattern unfolds.
Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 20s, but winds should be lighter next week.
There are no real signs of temperatures climbing above freezing in the foreseeable future.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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