Warm, dry winds bring elevated brush fire risk today

Finger lakes weather forecast wednesday march 19 2025 a field of brown, dead vegetation is lined with bare deciduous trees with white clouds and a few patches of blue sky above.
Temperatures will push 70 degrees in some areas with winds gusting over 30 mph. A cold front will move through with showers tomorrow. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Warm Weather Lingers

Temperatures will continue to rise today as southerly winds increase ahead of a storm system moving through the middle of the nation.

Skies are starting the day mostly clear across the Finger Lakes. A good amount of sunshine will persist through the morning hours.

The sunshine will combine with increase southerly winds to drive temperatures upward in a hurry. Afternoon highs will be 20 to 30 degrees warmer than the morning temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Dewpoints will rise very little, though, resulting in relative humidity values near or under 30 percent.

By the afternoon, wind gusts will be over 30 mph and approaching 40 mph.

This combination of warm temperatures, very dry air, gusty winds, and ample dry fuels from last year’s dead vegetation is a perfect combination for brush fires that will ignite and spread easily.

As a reminder, the annual statewide burn ban is in effect through May, but extra caution is needed today with anything that could be an ignition source. Even small sparks or hot materials could trigger fire ignition.

Clouds will increase this afternoon, but the fire threat will not start to decrease until after sunset. Even then, relative humidity values are not expected to rise above 50 percent until near dawn tomorrow, so continue to use caution tonight.

Winds will remain gusty tonight and into Thursday, remaining from the south with gusts between 30-40 mph.

It will be a mild night with temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Thursday will not be quite as warm, but still quite mild, with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s.

Mostly cloudy skies will lead to occasional rain showers in the afternoon. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are not expected.

Late in the afternoon, winds will start to turn clockwise to the southwest, then west, and into the northwest during the evening.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed mar 19 | wed, am sun pm clouds upper 60 | thur, afternoon showers near 60 | fri, sunny a few clouds mid 40 | sat, a few showers, late flurries upper 40 | sun, more clouds than sun near 40 | mon, am mix, then rain showers upper 40 | tues, a few rain, snow showers mid 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Prolonged Cooler Weather

The changing winds tomorrow evening will be the result of a cold front passing through the region. Temperatures will fall steadily through the night, ending up in the upper 20s by Friday morning.

After a few early clouds, skies will clear out on Friday. Gusty northwest winds will slowly diminish but will hold temperatures to the low and mid 40s.

Despite the cooler temperatures, the air will be similarly dry to today. With gusty winds again in place, expect another day of increased brush fire potential.

Another small weather system will move through on Saturday with some rain showers and perhaps a few late flurries.

Temperatures will get a small bump up with this system with highs in the upper 40s. Temperatures Saturday night will slide back into the mid 20s as cooler air is reinforced behind the system.

A few isolated lake effect flurries will be possible very early Sunday, but the rest of the day will be dry with more clouds than sun. Highs will average out around 40 degrees.

Monday morning will have some rain and snow showers with just rain showers in the afternoon. Precipitation should be scattered and generally light. Highs will end up in the mid and upper 40s.

Tuesday will have a few more rain and snow showers with highs remaining in the 40s.

The second half of next week will mainly have highs in the 30s with chances for on and off light rain and snow showers.

Temperatures will remain seasonably cool as we close out March the following week and head into early April.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed mar 19 | wed, am sun pm clouds upper 60 | thur, afternoon showers near 60 | fri, sunny a few clouds mid 40 | sat, a few showers, late flurries upper 40 | sun, more clouds than sun near 40 | mon, am mix, then rain showers upper 40 | tues, a few rain, snow showers mid 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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