Late Week Weather Forecast
An area of low pressure will lift into the Upper Great Lakes today, bringing warmer temperatures with some showers and storms.
Skies will be mixed for most of the day today, with some periods of clouds and some breaks of sun.
A few stray, brief spits of rain cannot be ruled out through the morning either, but anything that falls will be very light.
South winds have already been causing temperatures to rise since the predawn hours. Temperatures will make a steady march upward with highs in the 70-75 degree range for most areas today.
The first increased chances for rain and a few thunderstorms will come in the late afternoon. This activity should be scattered.
A better chance for rain and thunderstorms will come during the early evening hours. A line of storms is expected to develop over Ontario and Ohio before pushing east into Western New York around sunset.
This line of storms will be weakening as it enters our area, but some isolated instances of strong to severe thunderstorm winds are still possible. The threat of severe weather will be highest in the western fringes of the region, mainly near and west of I-390.
Further east, the line of storms will transform into a large area of rain with embedded thunder and may persist into the early overnight hours.
Overnight temperatures will only drop to around 60 degrees thanks to the clouds, rain, and continued southerly flow with low to our northwest.
Quieter weather is expected early Friday, though a few stray showers may dot the area.
Scattered showers will increase during the midday hours with a few thunderstorms popping up during the afternoon. Some clusters of storms may organize into small lines which could pose a localized wind risk.
Like tonight, widespread severe weather is not expected and any wind damage should be very sporadic.
As always, I will be monitoring the situation both tonight and tomorrow closely in case things evolve in an unexpected manner.
Winds Friday will turn to the southwest and eventually west as the low tracks across southern Canada. Winds will be steady today and tomorrow, but not too strong. High temperatures Friday will also be in the low and mid 70s.
Wet Weather
A second low will take shape over the Ohio River Valley this weekend. However, with dual high pressure systems to the north over Canada and to the east over the Atlantic Ocean, this low will have nowhere to go.
The result will be a prolonged period of unsettled weather throughout the region, including the Finger Lakes.
However, the fine details in a situation like this are often complicated and uncertain. As the parent low sits and spins, waves of atmospheric energy will spin around it.
These small disturbances end up controlling much of the day-to-day weather, but are very difficult for the models to resolve accurately more than a day or so in advance.
I am seeing this happen on the models now, with poor run-to-run consistency on the timing and nature of rain events this weekend and into early next week.
For the weekend, on and off periods of showers are likely with uncertainty in how prolonged and steady the rain will be both Saturday and Sunday.
Both days will be wet, there is little doubt about that, but how much dry time there will be between batches of rain is what is uncertain.
Temperatures through the weekend will be on the cool side due to the clouds, showers, and the Canadian high pressure. Highs will mainly be in the 50s both days.
By Monday, the two high pressures will merge off the coast of New England, cutting off our supply of cooler air and allow temperatures to nudge upwards.
Several days of temperatures in the upper 60s are likely next week, which should be enough to reintroduce the chance for thunderstorms into the forecast.
From a severe weather perspective, if temperatures mainly remain in the 60s, that should put a limit on the intensity of thunderstorms. Upper atmosphere support for severe weather also looks minimal Monday and Wednesday but could be more present on Tuesday.
The weather should dry out late next week and next weekend with temperatures remaining mainly in the 60s.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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