Early Week Weather
A much needed break in the rainy weather will continue today, but then the pattern will go back to daily chances for rain starting tomorrow.
Skies remain clear across the region this morning as high pressure along the coast of southern New England continues to dominate our weather.
South winds on the backside of this high will push warmer air into the region today, a process that already got underway during the overnight hours.
Temperatures are highly variable this morning due to topography, but will even out a bit as the day goes on. Many areas will end up around 80 degrees this afternoon, with warmer and cooler pockets as usual.
Skies will remain sunny until the mid to late afternoon, when an area of thin clouds will start overspread the area from southwest to northeast.
By the evening, clouds will dominate the skies, though the full moon will still filter its light through tonight.
Light south winds will persist overnight, teaming up with the clouds to hold temperatures in the mid 50s.
Rain showers will begin to move back into the region Tuesday morning with the chance for rain continuing throughout the day.
However, dry air will be firmly established and the rain will weaken and dissipate as it moves into the area.
Therefore, it is safe to expect at least some showers tomorrow, but the exact details of how this battle between rain and dry air plays out leads to some uncertainty in how much rain will fall.
Generally speaking, the further north, the greater the chance dry air wins out and rain is limited to some spits and spurts.
Unsurprisingly, temperatures will be cooler than today by about 10 degrees. Still, this means most areas will be up around 70 degrees.
Unsettled Pattern Persists
Tuesday will be just the first day with rain chances; the rest of the week will follow suit.
That being said, it does not look like the washout last week was and temperatures will remain on the warm side.
Wednesday will have just some occasional spits of rain. There should be plenty of dry time as well.
Wednesday will be the windiest day of the week, with southwest winds of 10-20 mph and a few gusts approaching 40 mph. The strongest winds will be over the higher elevations of the eastern Finger Lakes.
Temperatures Wednesday will remain around 70 degrees, with temperatures Wednesday night barely getting below 60 degrees.
Thursday may be a bit more showery than Wednesday and a few thunderstorms could also mix in. Temperatures will nudge upward a bit with highs in the mid 70s.
Warm and humid conditions will give the atmosphere a good amount of energy to work with for thunderstorms on Friday. At this point, the winds in the atmosphere do not look overly favorable for widespread severe weather, but the chance for a couple isolated, short-lived stronger storms will need to be monitored.
This set up will persist into Saturday. The atmosphere may not be quite as energetic as on Friday, but winds may be a bit more favorable for organizing a few strong storms.
Both days abound with uncertainty regarding the severe potential and are something I have already been monitoring over the last few days. Again, at this point, these set-ups look only slightly favorable for isolated strong storms and not more widespread, significant severe weather.
Temperatures will take a step back by Sunday with highs mainly staying under 70 degrees.
Unsettled weather looks to persist into next week as well, with temperatures generally a bit cooler than this week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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