Areas of Rain
Widespread rain will again fall across the Finger Lakes, starting tonight and continuing into Thursday.
With a stalled out frontal boundary hanging about the area, the moist lower atmosphere has the region off to a foggy start this morning.
Fog will gradually diminish, but skies will remain rather cloudy throughout the day. There should not really be any rain, however, until late this afternoon.
An area of low pressure will move along the front, first pushing the front north this evening. Rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder will develop during the late afternoon and evening hours, lifting northeast through the region.
Rain before sunset will be most likely across the southern half of the region. After sunset, the entire area should see, at a minimum, scattered showers. Widespread rain will be possible if the showers coalesce into a broader area.
As the rain passes through, winds will turn to the south and increase during the overnight. By Thursday morning, wind speeds will be near or over 10 mph with a few gusts to 30 mph.
Temperatures today will reach the mid 70s, followed by overnight lows mostly above 60 degrees. A few areas may not drop much below 65 degrees.
There is still a bit of uncertainty in how Thursday’s weather evolves due to slight differences in the projected path of the low pressure center.
Just north and west of the path of the low, widespread rain will be possible again. A stripe of particularly heavy rain may be possible as thunderstorms develop along the leading edge of the rain during the late morning and early afternoon.
While most models keep this heaviest rainfall just east, there are some that bring a 1-3 inch rain to the eastern Finger Lakes. It will be a close call.
Even if, as expected, the heaviest just misses the area, periods of rain are likely on Thursday, especially during the morning and midday hours. Helpful rainfall amounts of one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch are possible.
Thursday afternoon should see a gradual reduction in rainfall as the low pushes further east. Winds will peak during the morning hours, then weaken in the afternoon as well.
With the clouds and showers, highs will mainly be in the low 70s, though a few mid 70s will also be possible.
Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s Thursday night with a chance for some more fog. Friday will be rather cloudy but with a few glimpses of sunshine. Pop-up scattered showers will be possible from the late morning through the afternoon.
Another Dry Stretch
Showers will dissipate late Friday as temperatures drop according to the daytime heating cycle. Highs will be in the mid 70s.
Once those showers dissipate, it may be some time before we see any rain again.
Saturday should start off with temperatures in the lower half of the 50s, but afternoon highs will remain in the mid 70s. Skies will be sunny after some morning fog in areas, with just some thin clouds passing through.
Sunday will be more of the same, but even a touch warmer. Morning lows will be in the mid 50s while afternoon highs will reach the upper 70s.
Winds throughout the weekend will be light and variable with speeds near or under 5 mph.
Sun and clouds will also be likely on Monday. Winds will turn to the north as high pressure moves toward the area from north-central Canada.
This high will start to push temperatures down, with highs in the mid 70s Monday, low 70s Tuesday, and possibly some upper 60s by Wednesday.
The high pressure system will also help block not one, but two likely tropical systems over the western Atlantic Ocean.
There are a couple outlier models that bring the western tropical system close to shore or even inland enough to bring rain to our area, but I am highly skeptical of those and wouldn’t even be paying attention to them if it weren’t for our need for rainfall.
Dry weather is instead likely to continue through next weekend with temperatures slowly rising again late in the week as the high pressure system moves east and southerly flow on its backside returns to the area.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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