Weekend Weather Forecast
The frontal boundary that hung around the region all week is being nudged out of the area by incoming high pressure that will dominate the weekend weather.
There are still plenty of clouds and a few stray spits of rain around this morning. Stray showers will continue into the afternoon, even as the cloud cover as a whole begins to dissipate.
Small breaks in the overcast will turn to sunny gaps in the clouds through the afternoon with skies becoming mostly clear by sunset.
Any rain that falls today will be brief and light, and most areas will not see any measurable precipitation.
Winds will be from the northwest with speeds up to 10 mph. The wind will go mostly calm this evening.
Temperatures will rise into the 70 to 75 degree range this afternoon. Overnight lows will drop to the low and mid 50s with a few cold pockets across the western Southern Tier and Cortland County just getting below 50 degrees.
Saturday will see thin clouds filtering the sunshine to varying degrees. A few fair-weather clouds will also develop. Overall, it will be more sunny than not for most of the day.
Winds will remain nearly calm with just a whisper of a southerly breeze. Afternoon highs will be in the mid and upper 70s. Dansville and Rochester could flirt with 80 degrees.
The weather will remain quiet and warm into Sunday and Monday. Both days should have quite a bit of sunshine with just some fair weather clouds and passing thin clouds. Winds will be light and variable.
Sunday will be the warmer of the two days, with many areas near or slightly above 80 degrees. Some 80s will still be possible on Monday, but more areas will end up just shy of 80 degrees. Overnight lows will remain in the low and mid 50s.
Likely Quiet Next Week, But Uncertain
As I explained in yesterday’s post, the weather pattern over the eastern United States and western Atlantic Ocean next week is complex and uncertain.
Hurricane Humberto will pass between Puerto Rico and Bermuda this weekend, then turn north, staying slightly west of Bermuda next week.
A second tropical system, which will be named Imelda, will soon develop to the west of Humberto and should approach the southeast US coast late Monday into Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the remnants of the stalled out front will still be draped across the Mid-Atlantic region.
How the path of Imelda is influenced by Humberto, and how Imelda interacts with the front, are highly uncertain details.
For us here in the Finger Lakes, it is highly likely that our uncertainties will come down to how much cloud cover we see. Rain still seems very unlikely, but with such a complex scenario, I refuse to completely buy into any single scenario.
That being said, assuming an outlier scenario does not bring any rain this far north, high pressure from Canada should be our biggest influence next week.
This incoming high will drop temperatures from the mid 70s on Tuesday to the low and mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday.
Widespread frost across the southern half of the region is a real possibility Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and even northern, typically warmer areas may dip into the 30s.
Late next week, Imelda will likely either shoot out to sea, following Humberto, or stall off the coast of the Carolinas. If it stalls out, there is at least a chance it may eventually move north toward us next weekend. Again, the uncertainty is extremely high.
Be wary of social media hype surrounding these tropical systems. Beyond the basic idea of a pair of systems, with Humberto staying well out to sea and Imelda coming closer in, there is basically zero confidence in any given scenario.
Unfortunately, the algorithms on social media are getting worse, rewarding those who post the most hyped up, engagement provoking posts while reducing the reach of calm, science-based pages like mine.
Be sure you are on my email list to get a simple email with a link each morning when I post my blog. This is the best way to get notified of my updates.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
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