[Photo by Patti Witten, Etna]
High Pressure
A large area of high pressure is centered over the Upper Great Lakes this morning and will pass overhead tonight.
North winds of 5-10 mph will blow today ahead of the high pressure system, keeping our temperatures down despite mostly sunny skies.
Afternoon highs will mainly be in the mid 50s, though some higher elevations may have trouble getting much beyond 50 degrees.
Temperatures will drop quickly this evening with clear skies and winds becoming calm. Almost all areas will end up with either frost or a killing freeze overnight.
The coldest pockets of the region, mainly found across the Southern Tier and into Central New York, will see overnight lows into the upper 20s. Low 30s are likely for the rest of those areas, with mid 30s to the north, especially near the lakes.
Hyperlocal variations in the frost and freeze conditions are likely based on topography and even the layout of trees and buildings.
For many areas, this will end the growing season, and the National Weather Service will no longer issue frost and freeze alerts for those areas after tonight.
By Friday morning, the high pressure will be centered over New England, and a southerly return flow on the backside of the high will start to develop. South winds will increase to around 10 mph by the afternoon.
Skies will be sunny with a few thin clouds late. Afternoon highs should be in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Uncertain Rain Chances
High pressure will continue eastward this weekend, but its strength and position relative to two low pressure systems will have a key role to play in how our weather turns out.
For Saturday, the high should still have enough influence to keep most of the region dry for most of the day.
Skies should even start the day sunny before clouds from a low pressure dropping southeast across the Upper Great Lakes arrive. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s.
South winds will continue near 10 mph, nudging afternoon highs into the mid 60s.
The Great Lakes low will stall out Saturday evening, but a second, larger low along the Mid-Atlantic coast will be well developed.
There may be some interplay between these two systems, which could lead to late afternoon and nighttime rain across the western portions of the region. This remains uncertain, but the possibility is growing.
This rain would likely taper off by Sunday morning. However, another area of rain is looking increasingly possible later Sunday across the rest of the Finger Lakes.
This rain, too, is rather uncertain, especially in its timing and intensity. Some models show it arriving Sunday afternoon, others more toward Monday, and still others not at all. Rainfall amounts are all over the board.
The uncertainty is born out of the slow moving nature of the high and the two lows and the subtle yet intricate interplay between the three. Weather models generally do a poorer job in these types of situations.
Rain will be less likely as we head toward Tuesday and into Wednesday, with temperatures likely taking a dip by midweek. Nighttime temperatures may be back into the 30s by late next week.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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