Halloween Storm System
A large weather system to our south has brought widespread rain into the region this morning and will continue to significantly impact our weather through tomorrow.
Rainfall will be rather steady through the morning hours, though there will be some fluctuations in intensity as embedded bands come and go.
During the afternoon, as low pressure moves into central Pennsylvania, dry air will wrap around the circulation and into our area. The steady rain will give way to on and off showers, particularly during the second half of the afternoon.
The rain will likely stop for much of the evening and especially the overnight period.
Rain amounts during this first part of the storm system should be on the order of one to one and a half inches, though some areas may approach two inches.
There may be some brief wind gusts today, but generally speaking, the wind will not be too much of an issue. What winds there are will generally be easterly.
Temperatures rose into the low 40s overnight. Afternoon highs will be warmer in the east and cooler in the west. Mid 50s will be possible in the eastern Southern Tier, with low 50s for most other areas east of about Cayuga Lake.
Further west, lower elevations will be around 50 degrees, with upper and even mid 40s in the higher terrain, especially in Steuben, Allegany, and Wyoming counties.
Overnight lows will mainly be around or slightly above 40 degrees with some mid and upper 30s in the western Southern Tier.
By Friday morning, the low will be redeveloping to our east over New England, but a piece will still linger further west, just to our north.
Rain showers will gradually filter back into the region during the morning hours, followed by another area of widespread rain during the afternoon. This rain should make it into most of the region, but parts of the western Southern Tier may just stay on the outside with mainly scattered showers.
The rain will be lighter than today, but just as steady. Unfortunately for the little ghosts and goblins (and their parents!), precipitation should persist right through the trick-or-treating hours and deep into the evening.
I say precipitation specifically because some higher elevations will likely mix with or even turn all over to snow after sunset. A slushy, light coating may be possible in some of the highest elevations.
Afternoon highs Friday will be in the mid 40s for most mid and higher elevations, with upper 40s to near 50 degrees in the valleys and north of I-90. Evening temperatures will dip into the 30s.
Besides the rain and cool air, it will also be quite windy on Friday. Northwest winds will be around 20 mph with gusts as high as 45 mph. Wind speeds will drop somewhat after sunset, but it will remain blustery.
Early November Weather
By Saturday morning, this weather system will be packing its bags and heading for the northern Atlantic, where it will eventually become absorbed by the still strong remains of Hurricane Melissa.
Cool northwesterly flow behind the low will keep some lake effect precipitation in the area on Saturday. Most of this will be rain, but a few morning snowflakes in the hills south of Syracuse will continue to be possible.
The chances for rain on Saturday will be highest in the morning and across the northeastern quadrant of the region, as usual with a northwest-flow lake effect event.
Winds will kick up again after sunrise, though should not quite match Friday’s top gusts. Still, gusts over 30 mph are likely.
Afternoon highs will not be much different from Friday, with most areas in the mid and upper 40s.
High pressure should deliver a quieter day on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds. A stray spit of lake effect cannot be ruled out early, but winds will be turning to the southwest, so whatever remains will be shoved out of our region quickly.
After starting with lows in the low and mid 30s, afternoon highs should reach the low 50s, which is very close to average for the first day of November.
A quick moving system may bring a few rain showers on Monday, but this remains uncertain. Regardless, it should not be anything like today or tomorrow with only minor rain amounts.
Temperatures will possibly get back to the mid 50s on Monday, depending on the timing and strength of that system. Tuesday will be a bit cooler on the backside, with highs in the low 50s.
Skies will turn clear for Tuesday with sunshine also expected early Wednesday. Clouds will increase later in the day with another late-week weather system expected after that.
That system does not look nearly as potent as our current system but should bring more precipitation than whatever falls on Monday. While early, quite a few models show some snow mixing in on the backside of this, though accumulations will probably be unlikely.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Leave a Reply