Mid-Week Rain and Snow
An area of low pressure passing across southeastern Canada will give temperatures just enough of a boost to make for highly variable weather conditions across the Finger Lakes these next couple of days.
As warmer air is pulled northward, an area of widespread snow remains over the eastern Finger Lakes this morning while precipitation over western New York is starting to change over to rain.
Most areas should eventually change over to rain today, with on and off showers likely throughout the day. A few higher elevations in the eastern Finger Lakes and western Southern Tier may continue to mix with snow, even this afternoon.
Temperatures in those higher elevations will top out in the upper 30s today, but the rest of the area should be between 40-45 degrees this afternoon.
Winds will be from the southwest around or just over 10 mph today and will shift more westerly tonight.
Cloudy skies with scattered showers and flurries will continue tonight with overnight lows in the low and mid 30s.
Northwest flow will take over by Thursday morning, setting up a double-connection of lake effect off Lake Huron and Lake Ontario. This band should be broken into individual cells during the daytime hours before intensifying and consolidating shortly after sunset and continuing through Thursday night.
The location of the band will wobble around a bit but will be steadiest from Wayne County into central and southern Cayuga County and northern Cortland County.
Precipitation type will be tricky, with areas north of I-90 mostly remaining rain and the higher elevations to the south mostly seeing snow. Many will see a mix with periods of rain, especially during the day, and periods of snow, especially at night.
As such, any snow accumulations will be highly variable and elevation dependent. However, there is at least a chance that some of those hilly areas in Cayuga and Cortland counties could see upward of 6 inches or more through Friday morning.
A second area of snow accumulation may also be possible in Allegany and western Steuben County, though amounts will likely be less off of Lake Erie.
The lake effect will shift west and dissipate Friday morning as winds, still northerly, become less aligned from lake-to-lake.
Temperatures during this time period will vary by elevation, with 30s in the higher terrain and low 40s in the valleys both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures Thursday night will range through the lower half of the 30s with some pockets slipping into the 20s.
Finally, winds will become blustery again on Thursday with gusts of 30-40 mph from the northwest. Lighter winds are expected Friday.
More Rain-Snow Battles Ahead
There will be a brief period of quiet weather from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Skies may even partially clear for a time Friday night and early Saturday before new clouds build in.
Calm winds are also expected Friday night, allowing most areas to drop into the 20s overnight.
However, winds will turn to the south early Saturday and will become breezy by Saturday evening.
Warmer air will surge northward with highs in the mid and upper 40s Saturday afternoon. A few places may even hit 50 degrees. Temperatures will drop little Saturday night, mostly holding steady in the mid and upper 40s.
Widespread rain is expected with the warm temperatures, arriving late Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening. Rain amounts are currently expected to be around a half-inch.
By Sunday morning, a cold front will have moved through, and winds will be back to the northwest. Winds will gust over 30 mph throughout Sunday.
Scattered rain showers will be likely with temperatures remaining steady in the mid 40s through the morning and early afternoon. Late in the afternoon, temperatures will start to drop.
Rain showers will mix with or turn to snow Sunday night, with some areas of lake effect snow lingering into Monday, particularly the morning.
Winds will temporarily let up Sunday night, but will become blustery again Monday morning and midday with gusts approaching 40 mph from the northwest. Lighter winds are expected in the later afternoon.
Monday will start with temperatures near 30 degrees, with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s.
Rain and snow showers will be possible again on Tuesday as another system passes through.
The milder weather the models were showing for late next week is trending less likely with most models now locked in on highs in the 40s. The weather is likely to remain active with frequent precipitation from weather systems and lake effect possible in between.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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