Increasing Temperatures
Winter’s early grip will loosen a bit for the rest of this week as temperatures rise and snow leaves the forecast for a time.
High pressure over the southeastern United States extends northward up the Appalachians and into our region.
While most models showed clearing skies overnight, a layer of low-level moisture has been trapped near the surface beneath the sinking motion in the atmosphere associated with rising pressures. As a result, skies are cloudy instead.
It will be interesting to see this morning whether this moisture erodes away and we get some breaks of sunshine. While I think that may be possible, especially across the Southern Tier, the window for sunshine is short.
A new area of cloudiness will start to build in by this afternoon as low pressure tracks across Canada and north of the Upper Great Lakes. These clouds may allow a little filtered sunshine through, but overall, it is looking like it will be rather cloudy from start to finish today.
South winds are well established in the region but remain light, with speeds under 10 mph expected throughout the daytime hours.
Still, that will be enough to push temperatures to around or slightly over 30 degrees for the northern lake planes, near lake locations, and broad valleys of the Southern Tier. Higher elevations will see mid and upper 20s this afternoon.
Temperatures will settle into the mid 20s this evening, but increasing south winds will lead to a warming trend overnight. By dawn, most areas should be a few degrees warmer than they will be this afternoon, with many in the low and mid 30s.
Wednesday will also be cloudy with a few rain showers or some drizzle, especially in the afternoon. Some higher elevations may still be cool enough for some snow, but not anything that would accumulate.
High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 35-40 degree range. Winds will be 10-15 mph, gradually turning to the southwest, then west. However, Wednesday night, wind speeds will drop but turn back to the south.
Overnight lows Wednesday night should be in the upper 20s with clouds and perhaps a few breaks of clearing.
Rainy System Followed By Flurries, Wind
Thursday will remain cloudy with increasing south winds as the next weather maker approaches. By the late afternoon, some higher elevations may see gusts as high as 40 mph.
Temperatures will rise into the low 40s Thursday afternoon and then the mid 40s Thursday night.
While a stray rain shower late in the day may be possible, most of the rain will fall during the overnight period. Some areas, particularly across the eastern half of the region, could see over half an inch of rainfall. A few rumbles of thunder cannot even be totally ruled out.
The south wind will increase further Thursday night, with widespread gusts of 40-50 mph and perhaps a few gusts over 50 mph possible.
Winds will turn to the southwest with the passage of a cold front early Friday morning. Temperatures will drop back into the 30s with some lake effect snow showers developing. Accumulations at this time look minimal and localized.
Friday will also be windy, especially in the late afternoon and early evening. Daytime wind gusts may be as high as 40 mph, while early evening gusts may locally be at or above 45 mph. Friday’s winds will be westerly most of the day, then northwesterly.
Temperatures should fall all the way to near 20 degrees Friday night, but Saturday afternoon will recover with a high in the low and mid 30s. Winds will be much lighter and already back to a southerly direction.
A few snow showers may be possible on Saturday, especially in the north, as another weather system passes across southeastern Canada.
Likewise, on Sunday, a few lake effect snow showers may be possible as winds turn to the northwest. Wind speeds will increase again with gusts of 35-45 mph. Temperatures will be in the low and mid 30s again.
Monday looks quiet with some sunshine and a high around 30 degrees.
Next week’s weather remains quite uncertain with a large spread in possible temperatures showing on the models, along with a rising and falling pattern.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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