Temperatures are cold today and will be colder this weekend, but a brief warm up will take place in between.
» For more details on Today’s weather, check out the Weather Planner for today, posted Monday evening.
Today—This Evening
What: Isolated lake effect departs the region late. Otherwise, cold with some sun.
Where: Lake effect will mainly be over Livingston and Ontario counties this morning, potentially extending into Seneca and Cayuga counties this afternoon, then lifting north and out of the area this evening.
Impacts: Generally none, but locally some snowy roads and localized light snow accumulations. Brief periods of heavy snow in isolated areas.
Most of the region will see a mix of sun and clouds today. Lake Erie will supply a narrow band of snow that will wax and wane as it wobbles about the west-central Finger Lakes. The band may come further inland this afternoon as wind speeds pick up a bit, but then should lift north and out of the region this evening.
It will be a cold day with highs in the low and mid 10s. With SW winds around 15 mph and gusting near 30 mph at times, wind chills will be near or below zero.
Overnight—Wednesday Midday
What: Skies clear, then cloud back up.
Impacts: None
As lake effect departs the region this evening, mostly clear skies will take over tonight. This should extend into early Wednesday morning before clouds build back in before midday.
South-southwest winds will not be as strong as during the day, but will help prevent a very cold night. Most areas will dip into the single digits for a time, but temperatures may rise a little toward dawn, averaging out around 10 degrees across the region.
Southerly winds will increase after sunrise with speeds approaching 15 mph again by midday. Temperatures will warm steadily through the morning.
Wednesday Afternoon—Evening
What: Flurries and squalls
Impacts: Generally low, but brief periods of moderate impacts with snowy roads and low visibility.
How the snow unfolds later Wednesday is still a bit uncertain. Expect more details in tonight’s Weather Planner post.
A widespread area of snow is expected to move toward the Finger Lakes, but may dissipate as it heads into the region. This will be followed by scattered squalls during the evening hours, with a small chance for a better defined, more widespread squall during the mid to late evening hours.
Most areas will see snow accumulations up to an inch or so, but some locally higher amounts are possible.
Temperatures will peak Wednesday early evening near or slightly above 30 degrees after reaching the upper 20s during the daytime.
Thursday
What: Scattered snow showers
Impacts: Generally minor, locally low
A front will move through the area during the morning hours, continuing the trend of scattered snow showers and a few heavier but brief squalls. Lake effect will develop later in the day, starting in the northwestern Finger Lakes then dropping south toward the horizontal middle of the region late in the day and into the nighttime.
Winds may be blustery for a time in the late morning and early afternoon with gusts from the southwest over 30 mph. Temperatures will add a couple degrees for a midday high around 30 but will start to fall through the 20s in the afternoon.
Friday—Saturday
What: Cold with scattered lake snows
Impacts: Varied
Shifting winds will keep lake effect snow showers moving across the region. Lake Erie will mainly impact the horizontal center and southern parts of the region on Friday, transitioning to Lake Ontario snow over the northeastern half Friday night into Saturday. On Saturday in particular, there may be some locally moderate accumulations and impacts.
Cold air will return with temperatures falling through the day on Friday, possibly ending up below zero Saturday morning, and then failing to even reach 10 degrees during the day Saturday. The cold temperatures will make it harder for road crews to combat any areas of snow.
Sunday—Monday
What: Watching the potential for a coastal system
A strong weather system is expected to move across the South and then turn northward along the coast this weekend. The uncertainty in the path of this system remains high. It seems unlikely that the core of heaviest snow from this system would impact the Finger Lakes, but a glancing blow could still bring the potential for a widespread moderate snowfall. Travel interests later Sunday through Monday should continue to monitor the forecast while being wary of weather hype.
Beyond Monday
Next week as a whole looks cold with most days seeing highs in the 10s and morning lows in the single digits.
Scattered snow showers from lake effect and passing systems will continue to be possible almost daily.
The models are moderating a bit with the cold as we turn the calendar into February, but still favor below average temperatures.
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