Thunderstorms, some strong, will be possible over four of the next five days, thanks to a warm and humid airmass. Here is the latest on what is, and isn’t, known, broken down day by day.
Wednesday
Storm Chances: Scattered
Timing: Midday, afternoon
Areas: Anywhere, but particularly east of Seneca Lake
Severity: Isolated strong winds, torrential downpours
Today lacks a significant triggering mechanism to fire up or organize widespread thunderstorms. However, isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected any time from the midday hours through the afternoon as a subtle packet of atmospheric energy passes through.
Given the timing of this small triggering mechanism, storms are a bit more likely over the eastern half of the region compared to areas further west. Not all areas will see rain, let alone a thunderstorm.
The severe risk is limited to isolated instances of storms briefly increasing in intensity with a few strong to severe wind gusts. Torrential downpours are also possible, but storms should be progressive enough to prevent any flooding concerns. A few small hailstones cannot be ruled out, in addition to moderate to frequent lightning.
Outside of the storms, it will be very humid today with dewpoints in the 70s. Air temperatures will peak in the low and mid 80s, but the heat index will be in the upper 80s to near 90. Skies will be mixed with sun and clouds, and non-thunderstorm winds will generally be light from the south, southwest, and west. A muggy night is ahead with lows in the upper 60s.
Thursday
Storm Chances: Isolated
Timing: Early morning, late afternoon
Areas: Primarily east of Cayuga Lake
Severity: Unlikely, but a small chance for strong winds
Like Wednesday, there will be a lack of any major triggering mechanism, but more subtle impulses in the atmosphere will be at play. One is expected to pass through in the morning, with a second during the afternoon.
Activity early in the morning should be rather isolated and weak, but a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.
The current expectation showing on the models for the afternoon, which should be considered with a dose of skeptic uncertainty, shows much of the activity staying to our east. Still, particularly for areas near and east of about Cayuga Lake, a few storms may pop up in the latter half of the afternoon. These may not be able to develop enough to produce much of a severe threat over our area before they move east, but an isolated strong wind gust isn’t out of the question.
The inherent uncertainty at play means the storm threat could increase tomorrow as more data on the expected subtle bundle of atmospheric energy becomes available. If storms develop further west due to a slower arrival, or of the energy is a bit stronger than expected, more of the area would be at risk. Check back for more details in this evening’s Weather Planner post and tomorrow morning’s extended outlook.
Like Wednesday, skies will be mixed outside of any storms. Dewpoints will be into the 70s, so it will continue to feel very muggy. Highs are a bit uncertain, but should generally be a couple degrees warmer than Wednesday. Nighttime temperatures will be similar, of not a degree or two higher.
Friday
Storm Chances: Widespread
Timing: Peak during the midday or early afternoon, lingering into the later afternoon
Areas: All
Severity: Scattered instances of damaging winds, hail
A cold front is expected to pass through the region on Friday, providing the organized triggering mechanism that Wednesday and Thursday lack. With plenty of heat and humidity ahead of the front, thunderstorms should be widespread. The front is currently expected in the first half of the afternoon, concentrating the thunderstorm threat on the midday and early afternoon. However, stray showers and storms could linger late into the afternoon.
The severe threat is still somewhat uncertain. The necessary wind fields for a large severe weather event appear to be lacking, but that deficiency may be overcome by the fuel provided by the heat and humidity. I feel a middle of the road severe weather event, the type we see several times a year, is possible. This would likely result in numerous severe thunderstorm warnings with scattered reports of wind damage and some hail.
As usual with severe weather events, a lot can change over the course of 48 hours, so continue to monitor the forecast here.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds, no storms
At this time, Saturday looks quieter, less humid, and a touch cooler. Temperatures will still be into the 80s, but dewpoints will retreat to the upper 50s and low 60s. Sun and clouds are expected, and a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out… but no thunderstorms are expected.
Sunday
Storm Chances: A broken line of storms
Timing:Â Late morning or early afternoon. Still quite uncertain
Areas: All
Severity: Some potential for instances of damaging winds, hail
Another cold front may move through the area on Sunday with showers and thunderstorms. Wind profiles look much more favorable for potential severe weather, but the necessary fuel to power significant storms may be lacking. In some ways, this set up is the opposite of Friday. Sometimes in a set up like this, the powerful wind profiles can overcome the lack of fuel. Other times, there just isn’t enough to get storms going in the first place. The timing of the front may be a key factor in whether any severe threat develops locally, or ends up further to our south and east. Stay tuned.
Next Week
Cooler, less humid air is expected to build in next week, making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms. However, it will remain unsettled, with frequent chances for rain… some possibly widespread and heavy. Temperatures will generally be in the 70s, but a rainy day could result in highs in the 60s.
Monday looks like the most likely day next week to remain dry, but it may also be the coolest, regardless of rain. Some models are trending toward highs in the 60s.
The most likely day(s) for rain, however, are less certain. At this point in time, for planning purposes, it is best to assume there will at least be a chance for rain on any given day beyond Monday.
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