A weak cold front on Friday will trigger a few showers and storms, while a stronger front Sunday will have more widespread precipitation. Humidity will drop late Friday, with much cooler air moving in behind Sunday’s front. There should be some dry weather early next week before unsettled weather to end next week.
Friday
What: A few showers, storms
Where: Mainly east of Cayuga Lake and in the Southern Tier
A cold front will pass through the region Friday. The bulk of the rain and thunderstorm activity with this front will be east of the area.
However, storms will start their journey by developing over the eastern Finger Lakes and Southern Tier regions, roughly east of curved line running from about Cayuga Lake back toward Bath. There may be several rounds of pop up showers and storms in these areas, focusing on the midday and first half of the afternoon. A couple of these may develop fast enough to produce some strong winds and small hail.
Further west, precipitation is rather unlikely, but a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out.
Temperatures will peak in the mid 80s during the midday, then drop to the low 80s for the afternoon. It will remain humid until the late afternoon, when dewpoints begin to drop. Friday night will be much more comfortable than recent nights with lows in the upper 50s and low 60s.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds, less humid
Saturday looks quiet, less humid, and a touch cooler. Temperatures will top out in the low 80s, but dewpoints will retreat to the upper 50s and low 60s. Sun and clouds are expected with no precipitation. Winds will be from the west and northwest at around 10 mph.
Saturday night will be partly cloudy with lows in the low 60s. Winds will be from the south at up to 10 mph.
Sunday
What: Rain likely, thunderstorms possible
The forecast for Sunday remains complicated and uncertain as another cold front moves into the area.
Some models hint at widespread rain during the morning hours as leftover precipitation from Saturday’s storms over the Midwest move into the area. Should that happen, our chances for thunderstorms and severe weather would become very low.
However, a slightly more probable scenario would be for a mostly dry morning which would allow temperatures to rise to near 80 degrees. With the cold front arriving in the afternoon, there would be just enough fuel for thunderstorms to develop and tap into strong wind fields at the surface and aloft. This would introduce a risk for damaging wind gusts with any storms that develop.
At this time, it is safe to say rain is likely at some point on Sunday. It will also be blustery with south winds at 10-15 mph.
The forecast for Sunday may not become clear until the later morning hours on Sunday itself. I will continue to monitor the forecast and will post an update Sunday morning. If you need specific help to plan for Sunday, please use the Ask Drew feature… but be aware that as of Friday morning, the best I can tell you is what I’ve already included in this section of the blog post.
Monday
What: Sun, clouds, and a few stray showers
Sunday’s cold front will banish the last of the heat and humidity, setting up a cool Monday. Many areas will probably not quite reach 70 degrees. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds, though I would not be surprised if the clouds take over at times. A stray shower or two will be possible, but most areas will see little to no rain. Winds will be from the northwest at 10-15 mph.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds
Northwest winds will turn to the west or southwest on Tuesday. This should result in more sunshine than on Monday, almost no rain chances, and temperatures in the low 70s.
Wednesday
What: Scattered showers, maybe a thunderstorm
Rain chances will increase on Wednesday, but at this time, it does not look like all areas will see rain. The afternoon seems like the most likely time for rain showers, and a few weak thunderstorms could end up developing as well. Temperatures will inch up a bit more with highs around the mid 70s.
Thursday-Friday
What: Rain likely
Rain is most likely next week in the Thursday-Friday window. It is too early to tell specifics, but there is some chance for widespread, steady rainfall. Thunderstorms seem less likely. Temperatures will peak on Thursday then drop Friday and into next weekend.
Further Out
A pattern of cooler temperatures and frequent unsettled weather looks like it will stick around through next weekend and into the following week. There are currently no expectations for a return of the heat and humidity we experienced this week even into the final days of June. High temperatures during this time period will frequently be in the 70s.
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