The next few days will be marked by warm temperatures and hit or miss showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will briefly dip Friday, rise back to the 70s on Saturday, then crash following an early Sunday morning cold front.
Tuesday
What: A few showers, storms, some strong
Impacts: None for most, but isolated damaging winds and hail
Most of the thunderstorm activity today is expected to focus outside of the Finger Lakes. However, there are a few chances for some action locally. One is this morning in the northwestern Finger Lakes. Second will be during the midday. The line of thunderstorms that looked possible last night looks less likely now, but a shower or storm still cannot be ruled out, especially across the north. Third will be late this afternoon, when the trailing frontal boundary that misses north during the midday sags south into the area.
Of these three times, the late afternoon may have the best chance for severe showers or storms. There will be plenty of areas that probably get through the day without any rain. Any thunderstorms that develop may have some strong winds or hail. Outside of any thunderstorms, there may still be some blustery southwest winds. Highs today will be well into the 70s with temperatures only falling to around 60 degrees tonight.
Wednesday
What: Scattered showers, storms
Impacts: None for most, but isolated damaging winds and hail
Like Tuesday, there will only be subtle bundles of atmospheric energy that may or may not touch of thunderstorms. These subtle features are created by or influenced by thunderstorms from the previous day over the Midwest and Great Lakes. How the storms over Iowa and Illinois evolve today impacts what we may see tomorrow. As such, the confidence in the timing and location of storms is rather low. But it is fairly certain that there will be at least some scattered showers and storms at almost any time of the day. In particular, an early morning batch of rain and thunder looks possible, followed by more scattered activity during the afternoon. Again, widespread severe weather is unlikely, but isolated severe storms will be possible. Temperatures will remain very warm with highs well into the 70s and overnight lows staying above 60 degrees.
Thursday
What: Showers and storms more likely
Impacts: Severe risk uncertain at this time, but likely minimal or low
A small cold front will come through the area on Thursday, likely triggering showers and thunderstorms. The chances for widespread rain will probably be greater than Tuesday or Wednesday with a better defined frontal boundary. The severe threat is likely to be small, but exactly how small remains to be seen. Temperatures should still make it well into the 70s by midday, but may drop a bit during the afternoon.
Friday
What: A few showers
Thunderstorm activity will wane on Friday as slightly cooler air builds in behind Thursday’s front. There will still be some scattered showers about, but plenty of dry time as well. Look for highs in the low 60s with light winds. Overnight lows will make it to the low 50s.
Saturday
What: Sun and clouds
Saturday is our best chance for a completely dry day. Temperatures will bounce back up into the 70s as southerly winds become reestablished.
Sunday
What: Widespread rain, falling temperatures
A strong cold front will move through Sunday, most likely during the first half of the day. Widespread rain is likely with the front. Should the front be delayed to the afternoon, a thunderstorm threat could develop, but this seems less likely. Instead, by the afternoon, temperatures will probably be dropping well down into the 40s with rain tapering to showers. A few flurries will be possible Sunday night with lows in the mid 30s.
Monday
What: A few snow showers
A spray of snow showers will be possible early Monday, but should end by midday. No more than a light coating in a few higher elevations is expected. Highs on Monday will make it into the low 40s.
Next Week
Temperatures are unlikely to be nearly as warm next week, but the chill of Monday will not stick around, either. Most days should end up in the 50s. The first half of the week looks fairly dry, but rain chances may increase later in the week.
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