Temperatures will reach their high point of the current heat wave today. Heat index values will again be well over 100. Thunderstorms are possible on Friday, especially in the mid-afternoon hours. Saturday will see a cold front during the morning and midday hours with showers and storms possible during the first half of the day. Humidity will finally drop on Sunday.
Published Thursday, July 2
Thursday
What: High heat
The overall weather pattern over the eastern half of North America will shift slightly northeastward today. This will have two important impacts on our weather.
First, it will push the active edge of the heat and humidity further away from our area. This should result in a dry day today for most, if not all of the region. The chances for a pop-up storm will be small and mainly confined to the very late afternoon and evening, when the northeastward shift reverses course.
Second, it will place us more solidly within the hot air mass. Temperatures should be higher than yesterday with a few urban valley locations flirting with 100 degrees. Most areas should be in the mid and upper 90s. Heat index values will again be above 100 and locally above 110. The absence of rain means there will not be any local cooling, either, so it will stay hot well into the evening hours.
I have pulled back the overnight lows slightly based on the models over-projecting how warm it would stay the last two nights. Most areas have been getting down to the upper 60s and low 70s, so I am keeping that range for tonight.
Friday
What: Mid Afternoon thunderstorms?
On Friday, our region will be in a prime position to receive one of the thunderstorm complexes that have been riding along the edge of the heat and humidity. While we have seen mostly scattered pop-up storms so far this week, the North Country has been hit repeatedly by severe thunderstorm complexes.
The weather models continue to do poorly with these complexes, but several are keying in on the mid afternoon tomorrow as a time to watch for the Finger Lakes. With temperatures rising to near 90 degrees and plenty of humidity still in place, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and locally gusty winds at a minimum are possible. A more widespread severe weather event is possible, though.
While still uncertain, these current projections should clear out the precipitation by the late afternoon, leaving a dry evening for fireworks.
Saturday – July 4th
What: Morning showers and storms
After another warm and muggy night and morning, a cold front Saturday will put a halt to the heat wave. This front looks like it will pass through our region during the latter half of the morning or midday. Most of the precipitation, therefore, should be contained to the first half of the day. Showers and storms will be possible both ahead of and along the front. Since it is the morning, albeit a warm and muggy one, there is some uncertainty about how widespread precipitation will become.
Saturday afternoon is more likely to have a mix of sun and clouds. A stray shower cannot be totally ruled out, especially over the Southern Tier. Temperatures will hold steady in the mid 80s and dewpoints will remain well into the 60s. So, it will still feel hot and muggy, just not as oppressively so. Saturday evening should be clear, ideal for fireworks. Some thin clouds will build in overnight with lows ranging through the upper half of the 60s.
Sunday
What: Filtered sunshine
Saturday’s front will get hung up to our south, but should be far enough away to keep any rain south of the state line. Thin clouds high in the atmosphere will pass through, occasionally becoming thick enough to filter the sunshine a bit. Temperatures will remain in the low and locally mid 80s. Dewpoints will drop more noticeably and it should feel less humid.
Monday
What: Rain possible
The front will try to move back north on Monday, which could bring rain and thunderstorms back into the area. There is a potential for prolonged or heavy rainfall, but uncertainty is high.
Tuesday
What: Sun and clouds.
Tuesday looks dry at this point, which may allow temperatures to rise to the mid 80s. Dewpoints will only be around 60, so it should not feel too humid and heat index will not be a concern.
Wednesday
What: Sun and clouds.
Wednesday looks a lot like Tuesday. Dewpoints may come up a little, but it still should not be nearly as humid as it has been these last couple of days or today.
Later Next Week & Beyond
Late next week generally looks dry with temperatures remaining in the low and mid 80s during the day and 60s at night. Temperatures may increase a bit more toward the weekend, with rain chances increasing late in the weekend and early the following week.
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