Scattered showers and thunderstorms are probable Friday afternoon and on Saturday. Rain showers may continue into Sunday with a chance for heavy rain and thunder on Monday. Temperatures will fall back into the 80s after a final hot day Friday, but muggy humidity will linger.
Published Friday, July 3
Friday
What: Afternoon thunderstorms
Heat and humidity will remain in place for Friday. While still hazardous, it should not quite be as high as the last two days. A few areas may still see heat index values over 100.
Pop-up showers and storms are possible at any point and seem likely this afternoon. A chance for a more organized storm complex remains, which could lead to areas of wind damage. Even if the storms stay scattered and individual, anything that fires up today could have strong winds in addition to frequent lightning and heavy downpours.
The time period between 2-7 PM is the most favored for rain. The evening still looks as though it will be dry before additional showers and storms become possible overnight.
As a reminder, special updates and severe weather warnings will appear in this post and on the FLX Weather homepage.
Saturday – July 4th
What: Showers and storms, especially south
A cold front will pass through the area on Saturday, putting an end to the hazardous heat. Showers and thunderstorms are likely, especially across the southern half of the region. As has been the case all week, the weather models are not doing a good job agreeing with each other or themselves run-to-run. This lowers confidence in how the day will play out.
A quicker front would keep most of the activity to the south, possibly even south of the region altogether with just a few showers and storms. A slower front would give more time for storms to develop over our area. Like Friday, the evening looks pretty quiet.
Temperatures will likely end up in the low and mid 80s. Dewpoints will still be muggy, so the relief from the cold front will not be total or immediate.
Sunday
What: Increasing chances for rain, especially south
Saturday’s front will stall out just south of the region. Particularly over the southern half of the Finger Lakes, the front may be close enough for showers and a couple storms. The trend has been for the front to be further and further north, so anywhere in the Finger Lakes should be prepared for a chance for rain on Sunday.
Temperatures will probably not get much beyond 80 degrees with clouds and the showers, though it may still feel a bit muggy.
Monday
What: Rain and storms possible
Just as Sunday is trending rainier, so too is Monday. Of the two days, Monday is more likely to be a washout. Widespread rain and slow moving thunderstorms could lead to a flash flood concern. Stay tuned.
Tuesday
What: Scattered showers.
Continuing the trend toward rainier weather, Tuesday looks like it may have at least a few lingering showers around. Temperatures will be around 80 degrees, though it could be warmer if there is no rain.
Wednesday
What: Sun and clouds.
Wednesday looks quiet at this point. A stray shower cannot be totally ruled out since we are still many days away. Temperatures will start to nose their way back up into the 80s.
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds.
Dry weather should continue into Thursday with temperatures continuing to inch upward. Look for highs somewhere in the middle 80s.
Next Weekend & Beyond
The chances for rain will increase at some point next weekend as a cold front moves through. Temperatures will be knocked back a little, but not too far. Uncertainty is too high for the following week to draw any firm conclusions at this point, so expect typical summertime weather.
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