Smoke from wildfires in Canada north of Minnesota and Michigan will increase over our area today and especially on Thursday. Air quality will decline, and could be classified as very unhealthy or hazardous. Dry weather is expected until the weekend, when showers and storms become likely.
Special Note
Thank you for your patience this week. As I posted last Friday, I am caring for some family members this week, which has kept me very busy the last few days. All is well… very well, in fact. Thank you for the well wishes. I am glad to be available enough to post this mid-week check in. I will probably have at least one or two more posts this week, though probably not Thursday morning. Next week I will return to my usual routine of the daily weather planner posts in the evening and extended forecasts in the morning.
Wildfire Smoke
Recently, a mass of wildfires ignited in Ontario, Canada north of Minnesota and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. So far, we have only seen minor smoke and air quality impacts from these fires, but winds and conditions are expected to become more aligned for significant impacts, especially on Thursday.
As of Wednesday morning, the air quality over the Finger Lakes is still in Yellow “Moderate” level, which is level 2 of 6. Much of the smoke in the atmosphere, giving the sun its golden-orange glow, is above the surface.
There is a new, technically still experimental weather model that attempts to predict the air quality. Images from this model are flying around social media as it they are a true simulation of how it will be. The truth is that, at least locally, this is the first big test of how this model will perform. It is too early to tell what biases it may have.
Air quality on the other side of Lake Ontario is worse this morning, mainly in levels 3 and 4 across southern Ontario, around Toronto. Further northwest, closer to the fires, the air quality is in the Level 5 “Very Unhealthy” range.
As today goes on, we should see a decline in air quality into at least the Orange Level 3 zone, which is classified as “Unhealthy for sensitive groups”. Locally Red Level 4 “Unhealthy” levels are possible.
Smoke is expect to increase and become more surface based on Thursday, particularly in the afternoon. If the models are accurate, we could see widespread Purple Level 5 “Very Unhealthy” and Maroon Level 6 “Hazardous” air quality levels. This would be on par with the June 2023 smoke events.
Again, though… all this modeling, even with smoke levels, is relatively new or still experimental. It is worth taking note of and planning precautions, especially for Thursday afternoon and evening.
On a personal note, I never considered myself an at-risk group for air quality. During the June 2023 smoke event, situations had me outdoors and unprepared for extended periods of time. I eventually ended up with a severe and frankly frightening respiratory illness and asthmatic episode that I will never forget.
As the air quality declines through the levels, reaching levels 4-6, please protect your lungs and take appropriate precautions.
You can use https://fire.airnow.gov for the latest air quality information. Purple Air, a company that manufactures air quality sensors, also has an air quality map, which tends to show worse conditions. The Airnow.Gov data is considered more official and includes a formulaic adjustment for Purple Air sensors in the air quality equation. Purple Air, however, stands by their data and calculates the air quality without this adjustment.
Which is more accurate when it comes to health impacts? I don’t know, and personally, look at both when making decisions for myself and my family.
The good news is that the smoke is expected to clear out Thursday night with much better air quality on Friday. Some minor smoke may come back in this weekend, but should not produce the same level of concern.
Weekend Rain Chances
Smokey skies aside, the weather will continue to be dry for the next few days. No rain is expected today, Thursday, or Friday.
Temperatures will still be on the hot side today with some areas approaching 90 degrees. It remains very humid.
Tomorrow’s temperatures will be interesting to monitor. Most models show mid 80s for highs, but I knocked it back to the low 80s in my forecast to account for the heavier smoke loads. Temperatures should remain in the low 80s on Friday.
Rain is likely on Saturday as a weather system passes through with showers and thunderstorms. There could be multiple rounds of showers and storms, including in the morning. Some storms could have localized downpours, but at this time, severe weather is generally not expected. As we get closer over the next few days, the finer details will become more apparent.
Showers will likely linger into Sunday morning, but Sunday afternoon may turn out dry.
Temperatures will be a bit cooler with most areas in the mid and upper 70s.
Susan Sarabasha
Thank you!!!!
Jane Edwards
Glad to hear of family being better. Many thanks for this update.