Finger Lakes snow map for Sunday night and Monday winter storm February 1-2, 2015

A significant snow storm is likely for the Finger Lakes Sunday night into Monday. Confidence is higher than normal, with good model agreement and consistency.

Some inherent uncertainties still exist, especially over the northern areas of the storm, where a slight difference in the track could have a large impact on snow totals.

For the heart of the Finger Lakes though, it looks as if any north-south fluctuations will still result in a heavy snow event. A period of snow from midnight Sunday into Monday morning that accumulates at 1-2″ per hour seems fairly certain, resulting in a high probability of over 8″ of snow.

This storm will be fast moving, with the heaviest snow lasting 9-12 hours. The snow will likely be very fluffy, lending itself to fast rates of accumulation.

For those heading to Super Bowl parties tomorrow evening- do not be surprised to see some light snow start in the late afternoon hours. A period of light snow is expected through the evening hours, with only an inch or two of accumulation before midnight. The main event is after midnight, so as long as the Big Game doesn’t go into double overtime (or the power goes out again…), road conditions should be manageable heading home, though slowing down a bit is definitely recommended.

On Monday, the heavy snow will probably come to a rather abrupt end as dry air works into the storm during the mid and late morning hours. Some light snow and lake enhancement off of Lake Ontario will likely keep a few flurries going into the afternoon.

Winds will increase behind the snow. Given the fluffy nature of the snow, blowing and drifting could be a significant travel hazard into Monday night.

Temperatures will also be falling Monday afternoon and  through Monday night. Combined with the gusty winds, wind chills will be well below zero and could approach dangerous levels by Tuesday morning. Those looking for days off of school could be looking at a Snow Day on Monday, followed by at least a delay on Tuesday.