A cold front will move through the Finger Lakes this afternoon, but a lack of support from the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will mitigate the severe and flash flooding risk.
Clouds early this morning, associated with the remains of Tropical Depression Bill, will give way to a period of some sun later this morning and early in the afternoon. This sun should help temperatures rise into the upper 70s to near 80º. While it will be humid and conditions at the surface will seem favorable for thunderstorms, the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are looking lackluster. Instead of widespread thunderstorms, the activity today should be much more scattered in nature, with the majority of the region probably avoiding any strong thunderstorms.
Still, one or two strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible, with gusty winds and small hail possible. Some heavy downpours are also still a concern, and some localized minor flooding could occur.
But all in all, the forecast is looking much better for today than originally anticipated.
Our next bout of active weather will come through on Tuesday.