Some areas will get some much needed rain from showers and thunderstorms.
A stalled out frontal boundary to our south will serve as a focal point for showers and thunderstorms to develop over the next couple of days.
Some showers are moving into western New York early this morning. These are left overs from last night’s thunderstorms, and should weaken and dissipate this morning. Areas roughly along and west of I-390 have the best chance at seeing a rain shower this morning, while areas further east quickly warm under hazy sunshine.
Temperatures will quickly shoot into the 80s this afternoon, with most areas in the mid and upper 80s. A few urban areas could hit 90 degrees. By the early afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms should start to fire up. This should prevent temperatures from being as hot as they were on Wednesday.
Thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered, so many places will unfortunately not get they rain they need today. However, rain and thunderstorms should continue into the evening and overnight hours, increasing the likelihood of any single location seeing some beneficial rain.
Severe weather should be fairly limited today with light winds. Strong winds higher in the atmosphere to the south and west will result in a higher severe threat across the upper Great Lakes, Midwest and Ohio Valley. Still, with plenty of heat and humidity to work with, a few stronger storms are not out of the question, with frequent lightning, some gusty winds, and locally heavy downpours possible. With the hard, dry ground, some localized flash flooding could become a concern.
The evolution of the weather for Saturday is a bit less certain. Showers should move out of the area fairly early in the morning Saturday. This could lead to a window for some heating, especially in the eastern 2/3rds of the Finger Lakes. Temperatures could rise into the low and even mid 80s by the early afternoon. Another round of showers and storms may then try to develop, but this is still uncertain.
Cooler temperatures will work in later Saturday, setting the stage for 70s on Sunday. Some scattered rain showers will be possible as the frontal boundary pulls away from the region.
The cool weather will not linger, with temperatures heating back up early next week. Early in the week will be dry, but there may be some chances for rain later in the week.
I was unable to write up a drought report yesterday, but in a quick summary, the drought continues to intensify. Two weeks ago, about 4% of New York State was classified as a moderate drought. Last week, that jump to 16%. Now the number is over 41%, with virtually all of the Finger Lakes in the D1- Moderate Drought status. Hopefully some of the rain this weekend will at least temporarily bring some relief.