Unsettled Start to March
A strong area of low pressure is located over Lake Erie this morning and will slowly press northeast through the day. Some showers are out ahead of this line, with a squall of severe thunderstorms through the Ohio and Tenessee Valleys.
Intermittent periods of rain should be expected throughout the day. There will be a few breaks where there is little in the way of precipitation, and a few periods where it will be fairly rainy across the region.
There is a chance for some thunder, especially across the Southern Tier and eastern Finger Lakes. The best time for thunder will be later this morning and again during the afternoon hours. Some of the storms may be able to tap into the strong winds in the atmosphere, but generally speaking, I feel the severe weather threat for our area is very minimal, with most of the action well south in central and southern Pennsylvania.
That is not to say it will not be windy, though. The entire region is under a Wind Advisory for gusts of 40 to 50 mph through tonight and into Thursday. These winds will be independent of any rain of thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be well above normal today as warm air works in ahead of the storm system. It is already very warm this morning, with many mid and upper 50s. About 7-10 degrees should be added on to these morning temperatures for highs in the mid and upper 60s.
Just Like That: Snow
Within 12 hours of temperatures topping out well into the 60s, it will probably start to snow across the Finger Lakes.
A strong cold front will move through the region this evening as the storm system continues to push east. There may be a narrow band of rain with the front, but with its timing in the evening, there will probably not be much.
Cold air will settle into the region quickly behind the front, with an initial quick drop from the 50s into the 40s, then a steadier slide back into the 30s.
Some moisture wrapping around the back side of the system will move in, mostly after midnight but before 8 am Thursday. Accumulations should be limited to a coating to perhaps an inch.
Thursday will turn out mostly dry with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 30s, but with the strong wind continuing, it will feel like the teens and 20s most of the day.