Showers and thunderstorms likely Tuesday — Live Updates

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday may 15 2018 severe thunderstorms
Thunderstorms will develop over the Finger Lakes early this afternoon and should quickly organize.

Stormy Tuesday

A couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday morning and early afternoon, culminating in a limited severe threat locally.

Live Updates Below!  

Scroll to the bottom of this post for my Live Blog, where I will post up to the second updates, images, and commentary.

At 7 am Tuesday morning, one batch of showers was already moving through the Finger Lakes while new thunderstorm development was ongoing over southwestern New York and northwestern Pennsylvania.

These showers and storms will move off to the northeast quickly. Generally, severe weather is unlikely, though a little small hail is not out of the question.

By the mid and late morning hours, steadier showers will work into the northwestern Finger Lakes, keeping temperatures cool for areas such as Rochester and Batavia.

Further south and east, temperatures will quickly jump into the 70s with dewpoints working well into the 60s. This will result in a moderate to significantly unstable air mass across portions of the Southern Tier and far southeastern Finger Lakes.

finger lakes weather tuesday may 15 severe thunderstorm outlook
Severe thunderstorms are most likely from western New England south and west into eastern Pennsylvania. Wind, hail, and possibly a tornado or two are expected. Click the map to enlarge.

As a cold front approaches these areas by midday, thunderstorms should quickly develop and organize as they move rapidly to the southeast.

This provides a very small window for severe weather across portions of the Finger Lakes from roughly noon-2 pm.

Thunderstorms will just be developing in the green shaded areas, so severe weather is generally expected to be limited in nature.

Once in the yellow zone, severe weather will start to become more possible with high winds and large hail.

On the regional map, the greatest severe threat, which will be at least a Level 3 threat, will extend from western New England into eastern Pennsylvania. Significant wind damage, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes are possible in those areas.

After the storms move through, temperatures will quickly fall back into the 50s with scattered showers lingering into the early evening hours.

Nice Remainder of the Week

Behind Tuesday’s front, the remainder of the week is shaping up to be very nice.

Both Wednesday and Thursday will have filtered sunshine as high, thin clouds remain in place over the area.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low 70s, while Thursday reaches into the mid 70s. Areas right along the shore of Lake Ontario will be cooler as a lake breeze sets up.

No precipitation is expected on either day.

Friday will turn out a bit cloudier as lower, thicker clouds press in from the south.

This, in turn, will keep temperatures mostly in the mid and upper 60s. Again though, no rain is expected.

Showers will move in Friday night and persist into the weekend.

Live Thunderstorm Updates

Stay tuned through the early afternoon with up to the second updates on the thunderstorms. There is no need to refresh the page — updates are automatic. A small chime will sound when a new update is posted, so leave this post in the background and check back when you hear the alert.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.