Cold front ends warmth, deflects Michael

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 11 2018 cold front hurricane michael
Rain will continue in the Finger Lakes as a cold front makes its way eastward, ending the summer-like warm weather and keeping Hurricane Michael far away. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Heading Into True Fall

Rain showers moved into the Finger Lakes overnight as a strong cold front makes steady eastward progress on its mission to usher in an extended period of chilly weather.

Temperatures this morning are still very warm with morning lows near 70 degrees. Scattered rain showers exist with some steadier rain to the south in Pennsylvania.

This batch of rain should lift northeast, clipping the eastern half of the Finger Lakes with some steady rain. Scattered thunderstorms will be embedded within the rain with some additional storms developing just west of the widespread rain.

Rain should continue into the early and mid afternoon hours. By about 4 pm, there should only be a couple drips of rain here and there left as the cold front clears the region.

Rain totals west of about Seneca Lake should remain under a half-inch while areas to the east could see as much as three-quarters of an inch. Localizes amounts in excess of an inch are possible anywhere thunderstorms develop.

Temperatures will not rise much today, holding steady in the low 70s until the mid afternoon. As the front moves through, a quick drop back into the mid and upper 60s will take place. Much cooler air will steadily filter in during the overnight period.

One significant benefit of this front is its impact on Michael. The timing of the front is perfect to prevent Michael from impacting our region. The front will kick the center of the storm off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Moisture running out ahead of Michael and interacting with the front will stay to our southeast.

If the front were even 12-24 hours later, our chances for excessive rain would have been much higher.

Here Comes the Cold

thursday october 11 2018 surface weather map
The 7 am surface map and temperatures shows the strong cold front poised just west of the Finger Lakes. While temperatures here are in the low 70s this morning, the Dakotas have dropped into the teens. [Click to Enlarge]
The cold air behind this system is significant and deep. Temperatures this morning are below-freezing as far south as Kansas. Parts of the Dakotas have dropped into the teens.

The air will modify some as it heads east and our chill will not be as significant. Still, in the coming week, the first frosts of the season are possible and even a few snowflakes cannot be ruled out.

Friday will be a raw, blustery day. Northwest winds will gust as high as 35 mph as cold air continues to flood the region. Clouds and lake effect rain showers will be likely.

Temperatures will range through the 40s to start the day, with low 40s in the Southern Tier and upper 40s near Lake Ontario. Temperatures will then only rise a couple degrees during the day.

A disturbance will bring clouds and rain into the region Friday night. Temperatures will drop slightly with most places in the low and mid 40s. A few parts of the western Southern Tier could slip into the upper 30s and see a few wet snowflakes mix in.

The rain will end Saturday morning, but only a few glimpses of sun are expected during the afternoon. High temperatures again will mostly be stuck in the mid to upper 40s.

A little sun will work out on Sunday and a south wind will take hold. That should help temperatures into the mid and upper 50s for the afternoon. Temperatures will start in the low 40s across the north with mid and upper 30s across the Southern Tier.

Temperatures in the 40s and 50s will persist throughout next week and, most likely, into the week after.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. John Gregoire

    Love the temp gradient map!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Glad to hear that, John. I believe I can have this program auto-upload to my website…that option is one of two main ones I am considering for the near future.