Dreary weather forecast for the Finger Lakes

finger lakes weather forecast monday november 5 2018 rain wind clouds warm sun cooler
There is little to be excited about in the upcoming weather, except perhaps Wednesday when the sun will shine and temperatures will be in the 50s. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

More Rain Ahead

The Finger Lakes will continue to be locked in a stormy weather pattern with three systems impacting the region this week.

The first of these systems is lifting north through the Upper Great Lakes this morning. While the center of low pressure is far from our region, warm air surging north is resulting in some rain.

The best chance for rain today will be during the morning hours though a few scattered showers will persist into the afternoon. Afternoon showers will be most common in the eastern areas.

Rain amounts today will be less than a quarter-inch.

finger lakes weather surface weather map monday november 5 2018 morning
Monday morning’s weather map shows numerous storm systems across the Eastern United States with a wedge of warm air working north through the Ohio Valley. [Click map to enlarge]
Along with the rain showers, it will be rather blustery. Southeast winds will gust between 30-35 mph. The wind will let up during the evening, only to increase again after midnight.

Warm air will start to make inroads into the region, but not everywhere will see the warmth.

High temperatures today will be above 55 degrees near and west of Rochester with highs near 50 degrees from Syracuse to Penn Yan and Dansville. Further south and east, mid and upper 40s are likely for Elmira, Ithaca, and Cortland.

The second system of the week will impact our region on Tuesday as a new low pressure system races from the southern Plains today into the Great Lakes tomorrow.

This system will build on the warming from today with temperatures getting above 60 degrees tomorrow.

Rain will move back in during the morning and fall for several hours. A rumble of thunder may even be possible with localized amounts up to a half-inch.

Showers will become scattered during the afternoon though a line of brief rain could develop along a cold front that will cross the region from west to east.

There will be very strong winds just above the surface on Tuesday though it will be difficult for these winds to come down to the surface. Still, gusts could exceed 30 mph at times with even higher gusts over higher elevations.

Winds will start from the south but end from the southwest late in the day after the front moves through.

Mid-Week Weather and Beyond

Wednesday and Thursday should be quieter in the Finger Lakes. The main weather those days will be a few limited lake effect showers to the northeast of the Great Lakes.

These should have very little impact on the Finger Lakes.

Wednesday and Thursday will instead of a mix of sun and clouds with breezy west and northwest winds.

High temperatures Wednesday will reach the mid 50s, but Thursday will be cooler with low and mid 40s.

A chilly rain is then expected for Friday as another storm system passes through. This one is still far enough out that there are some uncertainties, including how much rain will fall and the path of the primary low pressure.

A period of chilly weather will build in for the weekend and possibly much of next week. Medium range models are also beginning to back off on their previous projections for a warm November once again illustrating their untrustworthiness beyond 10 days in advance.

Instead of above normal temperatures for mid-November, daily highs may consistently end up in the 30s.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). When not forecasting, he can be found working at the local library, making goat milk soap, running until his legs burn, or playing with his three young boys.