Another Rain Event Monday
The Finger Lakes will once again be subject to an area of widespread, moderate to heavy rain.
With the storm track continuing to take low pressure systems into the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes, another surge of warm air and rain will make its way into our region today.
Clouds are streaming in this morning and skies will gradually turn overcast.
Temperatures are starting in the mid and upper 20s, but warm air is moving in on south winds. A quick rise into the 30s is likely this morning with upper 30s holding steady through the afternoon.
Rain will arrive during the mid-afternoon. By 5 pm, widespread rain will be falling with some heavy pockets. Steady rain should persist at least through 10 or 11 pm before a slot of dry air works in.
This dry slot may arrive in time for midnight, so the change of the year could end up on the dry side. Even if the steady rain moves out, though, there will still be a few scattered showers about.
Temperatures will get a bump into the low 40s this evening and should briefly rise into the mid 40s in the hours after midnight.
Rain showers will become more numerous just before dawn as a cold front works through. By the time the sun rises on 2019, most of the precipitation should be over and temperatures will be falling back into the 30s.
Also of note will be a period of strong west-southwest winds immediately after the cold front passes through.
Areas west of Seneca Lake will have the strongest gusts, possibly on the order of 40-50 mph. With the soggy ground, some tree damage and power outages will be possible. Further east, gusts will be in the 30-40 mph neighborhood.
These excessive winds will only last a couple of hours before tapering to blustery, but not threatening levels.
Quiet Start to 2019
Winds will continue to diminish throughout Tuesday as the low pressure system pulls away.
Most of Tuesday will be cloudy. There will be a few flurries possible, generally over the eastern Finger Lakes and Central New York. No accumulation is expected.
Temperatures will retreat into the low 30s by the early afternoon and the upper 20s by sunset. Wind chills will be about five degrees colder.
Wednesday will start clear and cool with temperatures dropping into the upper teens and low 20s. These temperatures are actually close to the seasonal normal.
Sunny skies will persist at least into the midday hours if not the afternoon. Some thin cloud cover from the south may try to work in though.
Highs Wednesday will reach the low to perhaps mid 30s.
Some chatter has been ongoing about a storm system in the Thursday/Friday timeframe with some forecasts jumping the gun and predicting accumulating snow.
That looks very unlikely. A few flurries may be possible on Thursday with no accumulation. Friday will have a storm system pass to our south, but it is looking increasingly likely that this system misses our region.
Even if precipitation did fall Friday, chances are significantly higher for rain. Any snow that falls would do so behind the system, but the probability for such a scenario is dropping rapidly and is currently less than 10%.
Still, I will continue to monitor the situation.
Relatively quiet weather will persist into the weekend with dry conditions expected Saturday and a few lake flakes on Sunday.
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