Brief break in active storm pattern

finger lakes weather forecast thursday february 28 2019 high pressure lake effect snow weekend weather
After a few lake flakes Thursday morning, the rest of the day should be quiet. Much of Friday, too, will follow suit before active weather returns this weekend. [Photo by Melissa Stella]

High Pressure Builds In

Northwest winds behind last night’s snow are kicking up a few lake effect snow showers this morning across the Finger Lakes.

Accumulations from these flurries should be less than an inch before they break up this afternoon as high pressure builds in.

There will be a window of opportunity for some sunshine this afternoon before a new set of clouds begins to work in from the south.

The sunshine will not help the temperatures much. High temperatures today will be well below normal, topping out near 20 degrees.

High pressure will pass over Lake Ontario this evening and into the Adirondacks overnight. Temperatures would be very cold if not for a weak system passing south of the region.

Morning lows Friday will mostly be in the low and mid teens with mid and upper single digits possible between I-90 and Lake Ontario and over Central New York.

A few flurries may skirt across the Southern Tier and southern Finger Lakes early Friday morning. Like the lake effect today, accumulations would be less than an inch.

The rest of Friday will be pleasant with a mix of sun and clouds and highs reaching into the mid and upper 30s. Another deck of thin clouds will work in from the south late.

More Active This Weekend

After our brief respite, the weather will become more active again this weekend.

A small area of low pressure will drop southeast through the Great Lakes on Saturday, not too unlike the path Wednesday’s system took.

This will be a weak, moisture starved system, but steady light snow should still fall throughout the afternoon.

Accumulations of an inch or perhaps two will be possible. Road conditions should remain just wet though with temperatures in the mid 30s.

A strong storm system will then develop over the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.  This storm will strengthen as it moves northeast towards the Mid-Atlantic or southern New England.

Snow out associated with this fast-moving system could be possible in the Finger Lakes as early as Sunday afternoon continuing into Monday morning.

Models are quickly trending towards higher snow amounts in the Finger Lakes. With our region poised on the edge of the storm, nailing down the track will have huge implications on our forecast.

Given how quickly this storm has evolved on the models, confidence remains low, but those with travel plans late Sunday into early Monday should remain in tune with the forecast.

Watch out for hype and premature snow maps and predictions. This is still an evolving forecast.

High pressure will build in behind this storm system, bringing quiet but cold weather to the region next week.

The core of the cold looks like it will be in place from Tuesday through Thursday morning with highs in the teens and subzero morning lows possible.

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Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have three young boys and also run a goat milk soap business, Ye Olde Goat Cart. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.