Copying Monday
A large, dominating area of high pressure will make Tuesday’s weather almost identical to Monday’s.
Temperatures early this morning are mostly in the 20s with a few mid and upper teens scattered about. These are mostly in the Southern Tier and Central New York.
Like Monday, high temperatures today will reach just the mid and upper 30s despite the abundant sunshine.
Winds will be a touch stronger today as the high pressure system approaches and butts up against a small low pressure over the western Atlantic Ocean.
Top gusts this afternoon should stay under 30 mph, but some areas could go over 25 mph. These winds will be from the north.
The wind will become calm overnight as the high passes overhead. With clear skies also expected, temperatures will again fall into the teens and low 20s.
By Wednesday morning, the high will be to our east. The wind will turn to the south in the return flow around the backside of the high.
This will propel temperatures to around 50 degrees for Wednesday. A few clouds may mix with the sun from time to time, but most of the day will just be sunny. Winds will be light, making for a very nice day.
Weather Turns Active
Thursday morning will start with temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees. Some early sunshine will quickly be replaced by clouds.
These clouds will be associated with a weak system skirting across northern Canada. Some scattered rain showers will move in from the west during the afternoon and evening hours.
Temperatures Thursday will still reach the low or even mid 50s thanks to a blustery south wind. Top gusts will be between 30-35 mph.
A front will move in Thursday evening and get draped from west to east across the area. As the Canadian system departs, a new system will take shape over the southern Plains. The front will serve as a connection between the two systems and will stall out over our region.
Just north of the front, clouds and showers will be commonplace, keeping temperatures in the low 40s Friday. Meanwhile, 30-50 miles south, sunshine and south winds will be possible with highs well into the 50s. Go 30-50 miles north of the rainy area, and temperatures may reach the upper 40s thanks to the lack of precipitation.
While this set-up is fairly certain, where exactly it develops is not certain at all. It is possible that the Finger Lakes region sees all three zones on Friday, but it is far too early to be sure.
As the second low strengthens and moves northeast towards the Great Lakes, it is looking increasingly likely that the front will be pushed north and warm air will flood into the Finger Lakes on Saturday.
There are several factors that will determine just how warm it gets, but 60s are a real possibility. For many areas, Saturday could be the warmest day yet in 2019.
Strong winds will be likely on Saturday and into Sunday as the low passes by to the northwest.
Weather apps and webpages that are fed by raw or lightly processed model data area already hyping up the possibility of accumulating snow on Sunday as a cold front moves through. It is far too early and far too uncertain to pay any attention to those amounts.
Even if it ends up snowing, temperatures bounce back quickly next week, so it would not stick around.
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