Great Day Thursday
An area of high pressure is situated directly over the Finger Lakes this morning.
The clear skies and calm winds associated with the high have allowed temperatures to drop into the low and mid 30s this morning. These cool temperatures will quickly warm through the morning.
The sunshine and a gentle southerly wind will send temperatures all the way into the mid 60s this afternoon. This 30-35 degree jump between the morning and afternoon is on the upper end of what is normal for a high-low split in our region.
Thin clouds will increase during the afternoon, filtering out some of the sunshine. These clouds will be out ahead of a weather system that will move through on Friday.
Rain, thunder, wind…and snow?
Precipitation from that system may arrive this evening as a couple scattered showers. Steady rain will move in after midnight and continue into early Friday.
The clouds and an increasing south-southeast wind will keep temperatures in the upper 40s to near 50 degrees overnight. Winds will continue to increase after sunrise, with gusts of 40-45 mph common place with a few higher elevations gusting to 50 mph.
A break in the precipitation is expected during the mid afternoon hours on Friday. Some sun could even poke out for a time. This will help temperatures return to the 60s and set the stage for some late afternoon and early evening thunderstorms.
Thunderstorms will be most likely across the Southern Tier and into the eastern Finger Lakes, but the entire area has a chance for some thunder. There may be a very small risk for a stronger storm, but severe weather is generally not expected.
As this line of storms moves through, temperatures will drop from the 60s to the 40s in a matter of minutes. Winds will turn to the west and continue to gust between 35-45 mph through the night. Cold air will continue to move in on those winds with temperatures in the mid 30s by Saturday morning.
Moisture will wrap around the back of the departing low pressure system, sending scattered rain and snow showers into the area for the first half of Saturday. A few higher elevations could see a coating of snow.
Winds will increase again after sunrise Saturday with west-northwest winds gusting as high as 50 mph throughout the day. High temperatures will only be in the mid and upper 40s, which is 10-15 degrees below normal.
Winds will finally lessen Saturday night. Skies may also partially clear which could lead to temperatures in the low 30s Sunday morning.
Sunday itself continues to be highly uncertain as another system tracks near or over our region. The chances for a more northern storm track, resulting in less precipitation and warmer temperatures, seem to be shrinking. In fact, a storm track far enough south for some snow mixing in is now on the table as a possibility.
It will likely be a dreary, raw day on Sunday with temperatures somewhere in the 45-55 degree range.
This system will move out quickly Sunday evening, leaving clear skies and calm winds overnight in its wake. Unfortunately, this means a very cold Monday morning with temperatures well into the 20s. This will be a hard, killing freeze for any sensitive vegetation that has started to grow.
Yet another system will pass through late Monday into early Tuesday with more rain and blustery winds. Temperatures will remain below normal for most of next week.