Weekend Weather Notes: Nice Saturday, a few strong storms Sunday

finger lakes weather weekend forecast saturday may 18 2019 sunday severe thunderstorms
Clouds will increase late Saturday as a warm front moves through, setting the stage for a hot and humid Sunday with a few severe thunderstorms. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Finger Lakes Weekend Weather Forecast

After a nice day on Saturday, thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon, some of which will be strong.

The sun is out Saturday morning and temperatures are comfortable. A warm front lifting through the Great Lakes will lead to an increase in cloud cover this afternoon. While a stray brief shower cannot be totally ruled out, most if not all the Finger Lakes will remain dry today and tonight.

High temperatures Saturday will reach the mid 60s for most areas. A few northern areas may sit in the low 60s while the Southern Tier could push into the upper 60s. Temperatures will dip into the 50s this evening before rising back into the low 60s before dawn Sunday.

Sunday will be our first hot, humid day as the warm front lifts north and temperatures shoot up. By the early afternoon, many areas should be in the low 80s.

finger lakes weather forecast severe thunderstorm outlook storm prediction center sunday may 19 2019
The Storm Prediction Center has all of the Finger Lakes in its ‘Slight’ risk (yellow shading) for severe thunderstorms on Sunday. This is a level 2 threat on a scale of 0-5.

Confidence continues to increase that a subtle wind shift will move through the Finger Lakes during the early afternoon triggering a broken line of thunderstorms. This line of storms will not impact all areas, but the individual cells within the line will have the potential to become severe.

A few isolated thunderstorm cells may also develop behind the primary line, lagging behind by 1-3 hours.

Frequent lightning and damaging winds will be the primary threats from the thunderstorms. The strongest few storms may also have some large hail. The storms will be fast moving so the flash flood threat is minimal despite some briefly very heavy rain. The tornado threat is not zero, but at this point seems minimal.

Be weather aware Sunday afternoon, especially if you have outdoor plans or are heading out onto the lakes. Remember, if you are close enough to a storm to hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning, even if it is not yet raining.

A few scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening and overnight. Scattered showers will also be possible on Monday. Any rain Monday should be brief and light. Temperatures will peak in the mid and upper 70s during the middle of the day before dropping some in the afternoon.

Sunday Thunderstorm Updates

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

3 Responses

  1. Valerie

    When do you think Cayuga County may see some storms? My graduation is that day at 11:00, but is thankfully inside. I imagine the ceremony will end around 1:00/1:30 pm.

    Thanks in advance!

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil

      Probably 2 or later so it should be fine!

      • Valerie

        Thanks! We’ll keep an eye on the weather.